Waters 0.74% Drop Defies 52% Volume Surge Rank 498 as KeyBanc Stands by $460 Target Post-Becton Dickinson Acquisition

On August 18, 2025, Waters Corporation (WAT) closed with a 0.74% decline, despite a 52.12% surge in trading volume to $0.18 billion, ranking 498th in market activity. The move followed a strategic update from KeyBanc, which reiterated an Overweight rating and a $460 price target, citing the pending acquisition of Becton Dickinson’s Biosciences and Diagnostics business. The deal, expected to close by late Q1 2026, is positioned to redefine Waters’ growth trajectory, shifting focus from organic expansion and buybacks to inorganic scale. KeyBanc highlighted potential free cash flow doubling to $1.4 billion by FY2027 and projected adjusted EBITDA margins above 31%, outpacing industry peers. The firm also noted Waters’ 15.0x pro forma EV/EBITDA for FY2026, a 18% discount to Thermo Fisher Scientific and 25% to Danaher, as a valuation edge.

Recent earnings data reinforced operational strength, with Q2 2025 results showing $2.95 EPS (exceeding $2.94 forecast) and $771 million revenue (versus $748.04 million expected). However, analysts responded cautiously: Bernstein and TD Cowen cut price targets to $360 and $322, respectively, while Jefferies raised its target to $385, labeling the quarter a "solid beat." These adjustments reflect diverging views on Waters’ post-merger integration risks and growth sustainability. Despite mixed analyst reactions, KeyBanc’s thesis underscores the transformative potential of the Becton Dickinson acquisition in reshaping Waters’ competitive positioning.

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