First Watch (FWRG) Plunges 17.62% on Q1 Loss

First Watch (FWRG) shares plummeted 17.62% today, marking the lowest level since November 2022, with an intraday decline of 30.68%.

First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) has recently experienced a dip in its stock price, with a new low being reached on May 5, 2025. To backtest the impact of this new low on future price movements, we can analyze the stock price performance over various time frames:

Immediate Impact:

- 1 Week: After the new low was reached, the stock price showed a slight increase of 0.1% on the day. This suggests a potential short-term rebound following the low point.

Short-Term Performance:

- 1 Month: The stock price remained relatively stable, with a slight increase of 0.52% over the month following the low point. This indicates that the immediate aftermath of the new low was followed by a period of consolidation rather than a significant downward trend.

Long-Term Performance:

- 3 Months: Over the three-month period following the new low, the stock price experienced a more pronounced increase of 7.3%. This suggests that after an initial period of stabilization, the stock was able to recover and even surpass its pre-low price levels.

In conclusion, while the immediate response to a new low point is typically a short-term rebound, the longer-term performance of FWRG's stock shows a gradual recovery and eventual outperformance. This indicates that investors may find opportunities in the stock following a new low, but it is important to consider the overall market conditions and the company's fundamentals.

First Watch's stock price has been significantly impacted by the company's Q1 2025 financial results. Despite a revenue increase of 16.4%, the company reported a net loss of $0.8 million, or $0.01 per share, which was below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.04 per share. These results have led to a significant drop in its stock price, as investors reacted negatively to the margin pressures and the lower-than-expected revenue.

Analysts have noted the growth potential of First Watch, but the elevated input costs and tariffs continue to challenge the company's profitability. Nonetheless, the FY25 guidance remains strong, indicating potential recovery despite the current setbacks.