Waste Management's Stock Slides to 258th in Dollar-Volume Amid Earnings Jitters and Analyst Skepticism

Market Snapshot

On October 24, 2025, , . , ranking 258th in dollar-volume among U.S. equities for the day. This performance contrasts with the S&P 500’s broader gains, , . The decline follows mixed analyst sentiment and uncertainty ahead of the company’s upcoming third-quarter earnings report.

Key Drivers

Earnings Expectations and Analyst Revisions

Waste Management is scheduled to release third-quarter earnings on October 27, , , , . These expectations are supported by strong performance in core segments such as Collection and Landfill, , respectively. However, , signaling vulnerability to volatile commodity prices. Analysts have revised price targets downward recently, , reflecting cautious optimism about near-term profitability.

Segment Performance and Cost Pressures

While Waste Management’s Collection and Landfill segments are anticipated to drive revenue growth, the Recycling Processing and Sales division remains a drag. Analysts attribute this to persistent challenges in recycling commodity pricing, which have fluctuated significantly in recent months. Additionally, fuel costs, which spiked early in the quarter before stabilizing, add uncertainty to margin expansion. The company’s renewable energy segment, however, , indicating resilience in niche areas. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to reach $1.9 billion, , driven by prudent expense management and operational efficiency.

Analyst Sentiment and Market Positioning

for Waste Management reflect a mix of bullish and neutral outlooks. Stifel and Citigroup maintain Buy ratings, with price targets of $252 and $268, respectively, while UBS and BMO Capital have adopted more cautious stances. The divergence in sentiment underscores uncertainty about the company’s ability to sustain pricing power amid inflationary pressures and commodity volatility. Despite these concerns, , signaling confidence in its cash-generation capabilities. This contrasts with earlier management guidance, .

Historical Context and Investor Behavior

Waste Management’s recent stock performance has been uneven. , , . Historical data shows the stock has responded positively to earnings surprises, . However, the company’s ability to replicate such outperformance in Q3 remains uncertain, particularly as analysts note a lack of consensus on key metrics like internal revenue growth. , but near-term volatility could persist ahead of the earnings release.

Strategic Outlook and Forward Guidance

Investors will scrutinize Waste Management’s commentary on fourth-quarter expectations and 2026 guidance. Analysts emphasize that management’s ability to navigate and commodity swings will determine investor confidence. A confident tone on pricing resilience and cash flow discipline could reassure stakeholders, but any signs of margin compression or delayed cost recovery may weigh on the stock. The company’s focus on high-growth areas like and healthcare solutions may provide a buffer, but these segments currently contribute a smaller portion of total revenue compared to core operations.

The combination of segment-level divergences, analyst caution, and macroeconomic headwinds highlights the delicate balance Waste Management must strike to sustain its growth narrative. As the October 27 earnings report approaches, the market will closely watch for clarity on these challenges and the company’s strategic response.