Waste Management Shares Rise 2.54% on Strong Cash Flow Outlook Rank 238th in $570M Volume Despite Earnings Miss

Market Snapshot

Waste Management (WM) shares rose 2.54% on February 26, 2026, outperforming broader market trends. The stock saw a trading volume of $570 million, ranking 238th in daily trading activity. Despite the positive move, the company’s recent quarterly earnings report fell short of expectations, with EPS of $1.93 (missing the $1.95 forecast) and revenue of $6.31 billion (below the $6.39 billion estimate). The stock’s 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages stood at $224.77 and $219.29, respectively, suggesting a mixed near-term technical outlook.

Key Drivers

The stock’s 2.54% gain on the day reflects a divergence between short-term earnings disappointment and long-term operational strength. Waste Management reported a 7.1% year-over-year revenue increase to $6.31 billion for the quarter, though this fell short of analyst forecasts. While the company’s net margin of 10.74% and return on equity of 32.45% remained robust, the EPS miss of $0.02 and revenue shortfall contributed to an after-hours price decline of 3.55% following the earnings release.

A critical factor influencing sentiment was the company’s full-year performance. Operating EBITDA expanded by 150 basis points to 30.1%, and free cash flow surged 27% to $2.94 billion in 2025. For 2026, Waste Management provided guidance of $8.15–8.25 billion in operating EBITDA and expects free cash flow to grow by nearly 30% to $3.8 billion. Analysts project 7.7 EPS for the year, indicating confidence in the company’s ability to recover from the quarterly miss. The stock’s rise on February 26 may reflect investor optimism about these forward-looking metrics.

Insider selling activity also drew attention. VP Donald J. Smith sold 12,194 shares, reducing his stake by 66.93%, while CAO John A. Carroll sold 1,021 shares, cutting his position by 10.94%. These transactions, totaling $14.5 million in the last quarter, raised questions about internal confidence. However, the company’s commitment to returning $3.5 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks in 2026 may have offset concerns about insider exits.

Analyst ratings provided further nuance. JPMorgan and Stifel Nicolaus upgraded their price targets to $265 and $252, respectively, while Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and Morgan Stanley adjusted their outlooks to “neutral” or “equal weight.” The average price target of $253.55 suggests a moderate upside potential despite the recent earnings miss.

Finally, institutional investor activity played a role. Sumitomo Life Insurance Co. and Private Capital Advisors Inc. increased their holdings, while Partners Group Holding AG sold 13,292 shares. These movements highlight a split in institutional sentiment, with some investors capitalizing on the post-earnings dip and others taking profits.

In summary, Waste Management’s stock performance on February 26 was driven by a combination of strong cash flow guidance, analyst optimism, and institutional activity, despite near-term earnings challenges. The company’s focus on shareholder returns and operational efficiency positions it for potential recovery in the coming months.