Waste Management Outlook - Technical Weakness and Mixed Analyst Signals

Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: Waste Management (WM) is underperforming with a recent price drop of -3.64%, while analysts show mixed signals and internal technical indicators highlight bearish momentum.

News Highlights

1. U.S. Vaccine Policy Shifts – Recent changes in how the U.S. approves and recommends vaccines could influence broader market sentiment, especially in healthcare and related sectors.

2. Trump Fast-Traces Utah Uranium Mine – While uranium mining gets a green light from the Trump administration, industry revival is likely contingent on higher commodity prices, which could affect broader industrial and energy markets.

3. China's Slowing Factory Activity – A slight improvement in May's PMI data (49.5) signals a softening contraction in Chinese manufacturing, which may impact global supply chains and demand for materials services like Waste Management.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts are split on Waste Management. The simple average rating is 3.80, while the performance-weighted rating is 5.34, indicating stronger confidence in high-quality institutions. However, the ratings are inconsistent, with recent ratings showing a mix of Strong Buy, Buy, and Neutral calls.

These signals contrast with the recent price trend, which has seen a 3.64% drop, suggesting a divergence between analyst optimism and market sentiment.

Fundamental Factors

• EV/EBIT: 108.51 (Internal diagnostic score: 1.00)
• ROA: 1.59% (Score: 3.33)
• Gross profit margin: 39.86% (Score: 1.00)
• Net income / Revenue: 21.92% (Score: 3.00)
• Interest coverage ratio: 4.70 (Score: 3.00)
• Cash-MV: 4.79% (Score: 3.00)
• Long-term debt to working capital ratio: 7.08% (Score: 4.00)
• Shareholders' equity / Total liabilities: 25.19% (Score: 3.00)
• Diluted earnings per share (YoY growth): -2.03% (Score: 0.00)
• Asset-MV: -18.43% (Score: 0.00)

Money-Flow Trends

Big-money and institutional investors are currently driving a negative trend, with an overall fund flow trend score of 7.73 (rated as good).

Despite this positive score, the large and extra-large investor inflow ratios are below 50% (47.7% and 43.2%, respectively), signaling caution. Meanwhile, retail (small) investors are showing a positive trend (inflow ratio: 50.1%), indicating some retail optimism.

Key Technical Signals

The technical outlook for Waste Management is weak, with a technical score of 1.63. Here's a breakdown of key indicators:

• WR Oversold: Internal diagnostic score 3.10 – This indicator is currently neutral but historically has a 50% win rate.
• RSI Oversold: Internal diagnostic score 1.00 – Historically weak, with just 25% win rate and an average return of -0.65%.
• Ex-Dividend Date: Internal diagnostic score 1.02 – Typically bearish, with an average -0.76% return.
• Dividend Record Date: Internal diagnostic score 1.02 – Also bearish, with a 33% win rate and -0.76% average return.
• Bullish Engulfing: Internal diagnostic score 2.02 – Mixed results; only 41.7% win rate historically.

In terms of timing, key signals emerged from September 10-12, 2025, including WR Oversold, RSI Oversold, and the Dividend Record Date, all suggesting a bearish bias.

Key Insight: The technical momentum is clearly on the downside, with 5 bearish signals vs. 0 bullish ones.

Conclusion

With a technical score of 1.63, a falling price trend of -3.64%, and mixed analyst ratings, Waste Management is in a precarious position. While fundamentals remain relatively stable (overall score of 6.36), the recent bearish signals from technical analysis and fund flows suggest a cautious stance.

Actionable Takeaway: Consider waiting for a pull-back or clearer bullish signals before entering a long position. Investors should closely watch upcoming earnings and any shifts in market sentiment related to the U.S. regulatory or economic climate.