Warner Music 2025 Q3 Earnings Sharp Net Income Drop Amid Record High

Warner Music Group reported mixed results in Q3 2025, with revenue up 8.7% to $1.69 billion but net income swinging to a loss of $0.03 per share, a 111.1% negative change from the prior year. The company did not issue updated guidance, maintaining a forward-looking focus on margin expansion and capital deployment.

Revenue

Warner Music’s total revenue for the third quarter rose to $1.69 billion, marking an 8.7% increase compared to $1.55 billion in the same period last year. The company’s Recorded Music division generated $1.35 billion, with Digital and Physical segments contributing $1.05 billion and $294 million respectively. Within Recorded Music, Digital revenue totaled $929 million, while Physical revenue stood at $119 million. Music Publishing contributed $336 million, with Digital at $204 million, Performance at $58 million, Mechanical at $16 million, and Synchronization at $54 million. Additional segments include Artist Services and Expanded-Rights at $195 million and Licensing at $111 million. Intersegment eliminations reduced the total by $1 million, reflecting the complexity of the company’s diversified revenue streams.

Earnings/Net Income

Warner Music posted a net loss of $16 million in Q3 2025, a significant downturn from a net income of $141 million in the prior year, representing a 111.3% decline. The company swung to a loss of $0.03 per share, compared to a profit of $0.27 per share in the same period last year. Notably, the company also highlighted that this quarter marked a record net income for fiscal Q3 in over 20 years, underscoring the volatility and complexity of its financial performance.

Price Action

Warner Music’s stock has shown modest but consistent upward momentum, with a 1.30% gain on the latest trading day, a 6.46% increase over the past week, and a 5.63% rise month-to-date, reflecting cautious optimism among investors.

Post-Earnings Price Action Review

A strategy of buying Warner Music shares following a revenue increase in Q3 and holding for 30 days yielded moderate returns, though it underperformed the benchmark with a CAGR of 4.45%, compared to the benchmark's 42.41%. The approach showed minimal downside with a maximum drawdown of 0.00% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.13, indicating low risk but limited upside potential.

CEO Commentary

CEO Robert Kyncl highlighted the company’s strong performance in the quarter, emphasizing “massive chart hits, breakthrough stars, and market share gains” as indicators of a successful strategy. He emphasized a forward-looking focus on artist development, catalog expansion, and building global teams. CFO Armin Zerza added that the company remains committed to driving efficiency, expanding margins, and deploying capital for long-term value creation.

Guidance

Warner Music has not provided specific numerical guidance for future periods, but leadership expressed confidence in continuing to accelerate growth through strategic restructuring and catalog acquisition joint ventures. The company emphasized its long-term vision for capital reinvestment and strengthening both creative and financial outcomes.

Additional News

In the three weeks leading up to the earnings release, Warner Music remained active in the broader music industry landscape. The sector saw significant M&A activity, highlighted by Billboard’s report on the largest deals of 2025 to date. The top five transactions in the first half of the year included three deals exceeding $1 billion, with the smallest at $450 million. While Taylor Swift’s reacquisition of her Big Machine masters generated substantial media attention, it was smaller in scale than the top five. Other notable deals included Sony Music’s purchase of Queen’s catalog for $1.27 billion, Universal Music Group’s acquisition of [PIAS] and Downtown Music Holdings, and Blackstone’s $1.6 billion purchase of Hipgnosis Songs Fund. Additionally, Legends acquired ASM Global for $2.3 billion, and KKR bought Superstruct for $1.39 billion. The industry also saw increased use of asset-backed securities to finance catalog acquisitions, with several companies—including Concord and Kobalt—raising capital through this method.