Walrus/USDC Market Overview: Volatile 24-Hour Move with Bearish Bias

• Walrus/USDC rose from $0.246 to $0.2512 before retracting to $0.2472, forming a bearish divergence.
• Strong bullish momentum followed a 24-hour high at $0.2512, but RSI signaled overbought conditions.
• Bollinger Bands tightened after 19:45 ET, followed by a sharp drop as price tested the lower band at $0.2449.
• High-volume sell-off from 00:15 ET to 02:00 ET saw turnover drop from $79,188.1 to $48,543.8, confirming bearish pressure.
• Key support tested at $0.2444 and $0.2433, with potential for further downside if momentum remains weak.

Market Snapshot and 24-Hour Price Action

Walrus/USDC (WALUSDC) opened at $0.2463 at 12:00 ET - 1, peaked at $0.2512 by 18:45 ET, and closed at $0.2472 at 12:00 ET. The pair traded between $0.246 and $0.2512, with a total volume of 636,654.4 and notional turnover of $152,453.3. Price formed a bearish divergence and key support levels were tested during the overnight session.

Structure & Key Candlestick Patterns

Price climbed in a tight range before breaking out to $0.2512 on high volume, forming a strong bullish trend. However, the subsequent pullback into the early morning showed a Bearish Engulfing pattern at 00:15 ET and a Bearish Harami at 01:30 ET—both indicating bearish continuation. A Shooting Star at 01:30 ET confirmed weakening momentum. The $0.2444 level acted as a key support, with a Bullish Engulfing at 03:30 ET signaling potential for short-term recovery.

Technical Indicators and Momentum

The 15-minute RSI spiked to 69 at 18:45 ET—into overbought territory—before dropping to 39 by 02:00 ET, indicating exhaustion in both directions. MACD crossed below the signal line at 00:15 ET, confirming bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands narrowed significantly from 19:45 ET to 00:00 ET before price broke lower, confirming increased volatility and bearish bias. The 20-period MA sat just above $0.2475, while the 50-period MA approached $0.248, both indicating a bearish crossover bias in the short term.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume peaked at 79,188.1 at 00:15 ET as price fell sharply from $0.2483 to $0.2472, while turnover dropped by 55% from 00:15 ET to 02:00 ET. A bearish volume divergence developed after 02:00 ET as volume declined despite continued price weakness, suggesting potential exhaustion in the short-term bear. A large bullish volume spike at 03:30 ET confirmed the $0.2444 support rebound.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

The $0.2512 high and $0.2444 low marked a 67.2% retracement at $0.2474, where price found immediate resistance. The 38.2% level at $0.2483 was also a key barrier during the overnight session. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level sits at $0.2458, aligning with the 50-period MA, which appears to be a critical support area for the near-term.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish divergence and confirmation of a Bearish Engulfing pattern at 00:15 ET, a sell-on-confirmation strategy could be considered. A bearish trade at the next open after the pattern would have exited the long position at $0.2483, resulting in a 1% return. Holding the position for 3 trading days with a stop-loss at $0.2495 and a take-profit at $0.2460 could yield a favorable risk/reward ratio. This strategy would align with RSI divergence and MACD bearish crossover, making it a robust short-term sell signal.