Walrus/USDC Market Overview: Bearish Momentum and Key Support Levels in Focus

• Walrus/USDC trades lower by ~2.2% over 24 hours amid bearish momentum.
• Price fell below 0.2345 support, with volume surging on the breakdown.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 0.2345–0.2324 as resistance turned support failed.
• Volatility expanded as price traded within a widening Bollinger Band range.
• Turnover declined sharply after 19:00 ET despite continued downward drift.

Walrus/USDC (WALUSDC) opened at 0.2345 at 12:00 ET–1 and fell to a low of 0.2270 before closing at 0.2281 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range saw a 0.0089, or 3.7% drawdown, with total volume of 664,347.2 and turnover of $153,826.90. Early bullish attempts failed, and the pair consolidated in a tightening channel until the 17:15 ET candle, when a sharp break below 0.2345 triggered increased bearish pressure.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained bearishly aligned, with the 50SMA below the 20SMA indicating short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA at 0.2383 and the 200SMA at 0.2427 suggest medium-term bearishness. Price remains well below both, signaling a potential for further downside if support at 0.2280 breaks.

Bollinger Bands widened after 17:15 ET, reflecting a rise in volatility coinciding with the breakdown of the 0.2345 level. Walrus/USDC closed near the lower band, suggesting overbought conditions may not apply but that the price is testing the boundaries of its current range. This could signal exhaustion or a potential bounce near 0.2280, though further confirmation is needed.

Fibonacci retracements of the most recent 15-minute swing from 0.2364 to 0.2324 align with key psychological levels at 0.2343 (38.2%) and 0.2333 (23.6%). The pair is currently testing the 61.8% level at 0.2312 on the daily chart, which may offer a short-term floor. A break below 0.2280 could extend the move toward 0.2258 (61.8% of the daily swing from 0.2364 to 0.2281).

The RSI and MACD indicators both show bearish divergence. RSI dipped below 30 briefly, indicating a short-term oversold condition but failed to generate a meaningful bounce. MACD crossed below the signal line early in the 24-hour period and has remained bearish, with the histogram shrinking slightly toward the end, hinting at potential momentum exhaustion. This dynamic raises the possibility of a temporary consolidation or even a short-term reversal if 0.2280 holds as support.

Backtest Hypothesis
Given the failed attempt to retrieve historical RSI(14) values for WALUSDC, a viable alternative is to calculate it locally using the provided 15-minute OHLCV dataset. This would allow us to identify past “oversold” signals (RSI < 30) and simulate a 5-day-hold buy strategy from those entry points. The volume and price data suggest several potential entry opportunities, particularly between 17:15 ET and 04:00 ET, where RSI could have signaled oversold conditions. If we proceed with this method, we can extract meaningful insights on the performance of RSI-based entries within the current bearish environment.