Walrus/USDC Market Overview

• WALUSDC traded down 5.5% over 24 hours, closing at $0.2201
• Price broke below key support at $0.2250, confirming bearish momentum
• RSI hit oversold territory (<30), signaling potential for near-term bounce
• Volume surged 2.4x above 30-day average during sharp selloff
• Bollinger Band contraction suggests low volatility ahead

Walrus/USDC (WALUSDC) opened at $0.2333 on 2025-10-28 at 12:00 ET, peaked at $0.2348, and closed at $0.2201 on 2025-10-29 at 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 1.59 million, and notional turnover hit $350,500. A bearish breakdown from $0.2250 and a strong close at 16:00 ET signal bearish continuation.

Over the 24 hours, WALUSDC experienced a sharp breakdown from the $0.2250 level, which had previously acted as a key support. The breakdown was confirmed by a close below the level at $0.2201, signaling a potential continuation lower. Candlestick formations included a bearish engulfing pattern between 21:00–21:15 ET and a hammer formation at 09:15–09:30 ET, suggesting exhaustion in the short-term. The RSI dropped to 29 by 15:30 ET, indicating oversold conditions, but volume failed to confirm the bounce, raising concerns about the strength of any pullback.

Moving averages showed a bearish bias, with 20-period and 50-period lines below price action on the 15-minute chart. The 50-period line at $0.2275 and 100-period line at $0.2290 were decisively breached. Bollinger Bands were in a wide configuration during the breakdown but have since contracted, hinting at lower volatility in the near term. A 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.2232 may act as a critical support or pivot in the coming hours.

MACD turned negative during the breakdown, confirming the bearish trend, while RSI remained in oversold territory. Volume surged during the selloff but has since diminished, suggesting reduced conviction in the move lower. A bullish reversal may occur if price rebounds above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $0.2220 and holds above $0.2240.

Backtest Hypothesis
The bearish engulfing pattern that occurred between 21:00–21:15 ET could be tested using a one-day holding strategy. If the pattern is confirmed by a close below the engulfing candle, the strategy would involve selling at the next day’s open and exiting at the close. RSI levels and volume should also be incorporated as filters: only execute trades when RSI is above 50 and volume confirms the pattern. This approach would help reduce false signals from weak engulfing patterns and improve trade selection.