Walrus/USDC Market Overview

• Price surged to 0.2497 before retracting to 0.2202 on heavy volume.
• Oversold RSI and bearish engulfing patterns suggest potential reversal.
• Volatility expanded as price moved from 0.234 to 0.2497, then sharply declined.
• Turnover spiked at 0.2494 and 0.2253, aligning with price extremes.
• Bollinger Bands widened early in the session, signaling a breakout period.

Walrus/USDC (WALUSDC) opened at 0.2341 on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET and surged to a high of 0.2497 before declining to a low of 0.2170, closing at 0.2232 on 2025-10-14 at 12:00 ET. Total volume amounted to 14,183,719.0 and turnover reached $3,228,808.41, reflecting heightened activity throughout the session.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a distinct bearish engulfing pattern after reaching a 24-hour high of 0.2497. This bearish reversal, coupled with a 15-minute doji near 0.2455, indicates strong pressure to the downside. Key support levels emerged at 0.234 and 0.2216, while resistance levels are visible around 0.2409 and 0.2443. The price has tested these levels multiple times, suggesting they may continue to act as meaningful barriers.

Moving Averages and Volatility

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed over in a bearish signal after the 0.2497 peak. The 50-period MA currently sits above the 20-period MA, reinforcing downward momentum. On a broader scale, the 50/100/200 daily EMA lines appear to be converging around 0.224–0.236, forming a potential consolidation zone ahead.

Bollinger Bands displayed a sharp expansion in volatility from 0.234 to 0.2497, followed by a contraction as the price retreated below 0.2253. The price now trades near the lower band at 0.220–0.223, which could either trigger a rebound or confirm a sustained downtrend if broken.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD crossed below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum. RSI reached oversold territory at 28, near 0.2202, suggesting a short-term bottom may be forming. However, RSI divergence at 0.2255–0.2253 indicates caution: price failed to retest this level while RSI did not confirm the move, signaling a potential false bottom.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements from the 0.2170 to 0.2497 swing highlight key levels at 0.2293 (38.2%) and 0.2364 (50%), which the price has already tested. These levels may now serve as dynamic support. On a daily chart, the 61.8% retracement at 0.226 appears to be the next critical level to watch, especially if the price stabilizes above 0.2232.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at key inflection points, notably at 0.2494 (volume: 193,020.9) and 0.2253 (volume: 542,920.5), aligning with price extremes. Turnover also surged during these periods, suggesting institutional or high-volume activity. However, price and volume diverged slightly near 0.2255–0.2253, where price failed to retest a prior low while volume remained robust, signaling potential exhaustion.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest using daily bars could simulate a 15-minute reversal strategy by opening short positions at the next day’s open and closing at the day’s close. This approach would approximate the bearish engulfing and doji patterns observed in the 15-minute data. Using WALUSDC as the ticker, daily price data would be required to confirm the reliability of such a strategy. Detecting Bearish Engulfing events on daily candles could help validate the trade signals. Given the observed behavior on the 15-minute chart, this could be a viable strategy to model.