Walmart (WMT) Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strike Levels and Trade Setups for Q4 2025

• WMT’s options market shows a 16% call-heavy bias (put/call ratio: 0.87) with heavy open interest at $110 and $105 calls ahead of Friday’s expiry.
• Technical indicators clash: RSI at 21.16 (oversold) vs. bearish MACD (-0.46) hinting at short-term volatility.
• Walmart’s crypto services launch and AI-driven retail moves could amplify upside, but earnings misses and regulatory risks linger.

Here’s the thing: WMT’s options activity screams bullish intent, but the technicals are mixed. If you’re trading this name, you need to know where the smart money’s betting—and why the stock might break out or crumble before year-end.

What the Options Chain Reveals About Market Sentiment

Let’s start with the numbers. This Friday’s options expiry shows 7,647 open interest at the $110 call (next Friday’s top OTM call) and 4,895 open interest at the $102 put. That’s not random—it’s a signal. Traders are pricing in a 7.3% upside move (from $102.49 to $110) while hedging against a 10% downside (to $102). The call/put imbalance? Classic “gamma squeeze” setup. Big money is buying calls to force short-term volatility, but the puts at $100–$102 (OI: 2,963–4,895) suggest a floor near current levels.

But here’s the catch: The MACD histogram (-0.56) and 30D moving average ($103.8) both point to short-term weakness. WMT’s stuck in a bearish wedge between its 30D support ($101.65) and 200D MA ($97.60). If the stock can’t break above $104.41 (Bollinger Middle Band), the calls at $110 might expire worthless. Conversely, a close below $101.65 could trigger a rush to the $100–$101 puts.

How Walmart’s News Stack Up Against the Options Narrative

The company’s recent moves are a mixed bag. The Zepbound partnership and crypto services launch are huge for long-term positioning—imagine customers trading Bitcoin after picking up their weight-loss meds. But here’s the rub: These stories won’t move the needle in the next two weeks. The market’s already priced in the AI upgrades and holiday promotions. What will matter? The November 20 earnings report. If WMT beats estimates (projected $0.60/share), the $110 calls could ignite. Miss? The $100–$101 puts might become a lifeline.

Don’t ignore the regulatory risks either. The SNAP funding uncertainty could pressure margins, especially if Walmart’s holiday sales fall short. That’s why the put-heavy positioning at $100–$102 makes sense—it’s a hedge against a post-earnings selloff.

Actionable Trade Ideas for WMT: Calls, Puts, and Price Levels

Let’s get specific. For options traders:

• Bullish Play: Buy the $110 call expiring next Friday (OI: 7,647). Why? It’s the most liquid OTM strike and sits just 7.3% above current price. If WMT closes above $104.41 by expiry, this call could see exponential gains. Entry: $102.49 + $0.50 buffer = $103.00. Target: $109.69 (Bollinger Upper Band). Stop-loss: $101.65 (30D support).

• Bearish Hedge: Sell the $100–$102 put spread (OI: 2,963–4,895). If WMT holds above $101.65, these puts will decay in value. Entry: $102.49 - $0.50 cushion = $101.99. Target: $104.41 (Bollinger Middle Band). Stop-loss: $99.14 (Bollinger Lower Band).

For stock traders:

• Long Entry: Buy WMT near $101.65 if it holds above that level. The 30D support line is a key level—break it, and the 200D MA at $97.60 becomes the next target. If it holds, aim for $104.41 (Bollinger Middle Band) as a first target, then $109.69 (Upper Band).

• Short-Term Play: Sell into strength at $102.97 (intraday high) with a tight stop at $101.74. This is a high-risk, low-reward trade for scalpers—best for those who’ve already locked in gains from the $101.68 bounce.

Volatility on the Horizon: What to Watch Before Expiry

The next two weeks are critical. WMT’s earnings report on November 20 will either validate the bullish options bets or trigger a selloff. Meanwhile, the OnePay crypto launch (end-2025) is a long-term catalyst but won’t impact near-term options.

Here’s the bottom line: WMT is caught between a short-term bearish trend and a long-term bullish story. The options market is pricing in a breakout above $104.41, but the RSI at 21.16 suggests a rebound is overdue. If you’re trading this, balance your bullish calls with a put hedge at $100–$102. And keep an eye on that 30D support line—it’s the difference between a rally and a breakdown.