Walmart (WMT) Options Signal Bullish Bias: Key Strike Levels and Strategic Entry Points for Q4

• WMT’s price dropped 0.87% to $102.55, but technicals still show a long-term bullish trend.
• Options data highlights heavy call open interest at $110 and $107, with next-week’s $110 call OI surging to 21,115 contracts.
• Recent news includes a $2.1B healthcare acquisition, $5B share buyback, and a data breach lawsuit—mixed signals for investors.

Here’s the core insight: Options market sentiment leans bullish, with heavy call buying at key strikes, but oversold RSI and bearish MACD hint at near-term volatility. The stock shows upside potential if it breaks above $104.00, but downside risks linger near $101.65 support.

Bullish Sentiment Locked in OTM Calls, But Puts Signal Caution

Let’s start with the options chain. For Friday’s expiration, $110 calls (OI: 7,725) and $107 calls (OI: 5,342) dominate, while $102 puts (OI: 5,745) and $94 puts (OI: 3,709) show bearish hedges. For next Friday, the $110 call (OI: 21,115) is the standout, dwarfing even the $115 call (OI: 11,636). This suggests institutional players are betting on a sharp rebound, possibly tied to Walmart’s $5B buyback or Q4 holiday sales.

But don’t ignore the puts. The $92.50 put (OI: 30,963) is a whale-sized bet on a 8% drop. That’s not just noise—it’s a warning sign. If the stock breaks below $101.65 support, those puts could trigger a cascade of selling. The put/call ratio (0.908) is nearly balanced, but the skew toward deep OTM calls means the market is pricing in a high-risk, high-reward scenario.

Company News: Strategic Moves vs. Short-Term Headwinds

Walmart’s recent headlines are a mixed bag. The $2.1B HealthX acquisition and $10B expansion plan scream long-term growth, but the Q3 earnings miss (3.1% net income drop) and data breach lawsuit add near-term friction. Here’s the kicker: investors are already pricing in the positives. The $5B buyback and AI-driven inventory system are likely why call OI spiked—those are structural tailwinds.

But let’s not gloss over the negatives. The data breach could dent consumer trust, and rising supply chain costs (mentioned in Q3 earnings) might pressure margins. If the stock can’t hold above $102.00, those risks could dominate. The key is whether Walmart’s $500M healthcare revenue target and $1.2B financial services rollout offset the short-term pain.

Actionable Trade Ideas: Calls for Breakouts, Puts for Hedges

For options traders, the $110 call (next Friday) is a no-brainer if you’re bullish. With 21,115 contracts in open interest, this strike is a magnet for liquidity. Buy it if WMT closes above $104.00 by Friday. For a safer play, consider the $107 call—it’s cheaper and still has a 5% buffer to the current price.

On the bearish side, the $92.50 put is a heavy hitter. If WMT gaps down below $100.00, this strike could see a frenzy. But only buy it if you’re hedging a long position—this is not a standalone bet.

For stock traders, entry near $101.65 support is critical. If the price holds, target $104.00 (middle Bollinger band) as a short-term goal. A break above $104.00 could trigger a rally toward $108.52 (upper Bollinger band). Conversely, a drop below $101.65 would signal a shift to defensive plays.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Bullish Bets and Risk

Walmart’s story is a tug-of-war between structural growth and short-term pain. The options market is pricing in a breakout, but technicals (RSI at 32.7, MACD below signal line) suggest the stock is oversold and due for a bounce. That bounce could come from the $5B buyback boosting EPS or holiday sales outperforming Amazon.

But don’t get greedy. The $92.50 put and $97.04 200D support are red flags. If WMT can’t hold above $101.65, the bearish case gains steam. For now, the best approach is to play the breakout with calls while keeping a put hedge in case the data breach or earnings concerns resurface.

Bottom line: WMT is a high-conviction trade for those who believe in its long-term strategy. But with a volatile RSI and bearish MACD, patience is key. Watch the $104.00 level like a hawk—this is where the bulls and bears will clash in Q4.