Walmart (WMT) Options Signal Bullish Bias: Call Open Interest at $105–$103 Suggests Upcoming Breakout Opportunity

• Walmart (WMT) trades at $103.13, with a short-term bearish trend but long-term bullish setup.
• Options data shows a put/call open interest ratio of 0.8089, favoring calls, with heavy call OI at $105 and $103 strikes.
• Recent news highlights Q3 guidance above estimates and strategic rebranding, but Q2 earnings shortfalls and tariff costs remain risks.

The confluence of options market positioning and technical indicators suggests a high probability of a bullish breakout for Walmart (WMT) in the near term. While the stock faces near-term headwinds from Q2 earnings misses and tariff pressures, the call-heavy options activity at key strike levels and oversold RSI indicate a potential reversal. Traders should focus on $105–$103 call options for upside exposure and monitor $101.57 support as a critical entry trigger.

Decoding the Options Imbalance: Calls at $105–$103 Signal Conviction

The options chain reveals a clear bullish bias in open interest (OI) for this Friday’s and next Friday’s expirations. For the $105 call (OI: 5,357 this Friday; 2,553 next Friday), the high OI suggests institutional positioning for a $105+ price target. Similarly, the $103 call (OI: 5,149 this Friday; 2,471 next Friday) reflects retail and institutional bets on a rebound from current levels. This concentration of call OI at $103–$105 implies a high conviction for a $105+ move, likely driven by expectations of Q3 guidance and rebranding-driven momentum.

On the put side, the $102 put (OI: 11,187 this Friday; 770 next Friday) dominates, indicating defensive positioning for a pullback to $102. However, the put/call ratio of 0.8089 (favoring calls) suggests the market is more bullish than bearish. The absence of block trades (no whale activity) further supports a retail-driven bullish narrative.

News-Driven Narrative: Guidance and Rebranding Offset Tariff Concerns

Walmart’s recent news flow is a mixed bag. The Q3 EPS guidance of $0.58–$0.60 (above consensus) and $2.3 billion VIZIO acquisition signal strategic momentum. The rebranding initiative, including a new logo and omnichannel focus, also positions Walmart to capture younger demographics and digital-first shoppers. These developments align with the call-heavy options positioning, suggesting investors are pricing in long-term growth despite short-term challenges.

However, Q2 earnings shortfalls and tariff-driven cost pressures remain risks. CEO Doug McMillon’s warning about rising tariffs and one-time restructuring costs could weigh on sentiment if not offset by e-commerce growth (up 25% globally). The key question is whether the $105 call-heavy positioning will be validated by Q3 results or if tariff concerns will force a reevaluation.

Actionable Trade Ideas: Calls at $105–$103 and Stock Entry at $101.57

For options traders, the $105 call (this Friday) and $103 call (next Friday) offer the most compelling setups. The $105 call is ideal for a short-term breakout trade, with a $105.00 strike acting as a psychological hurdle. If WMT closes above $105 this Friday, the $103 call (next Friday) becomes a carry trade for extended exposure. Conversely, the $102 put (this Friday) provides downside protection if the stock dips to $102.

For stock traders, consider entry near $101.57 (middle Bollinger Band) if support holds. A $101.57 entry with a $103.13 stop-loss targets $106.25 (upper Bollinger Band) as a 3.6% profit zone. Alternatively, a bullish call spread at $103–$105 could lock in $2.00 profit if WMT breaks $105.

Volatility on the Horizon: Balancing Bullish Momentum and Earnings Uncertainty

The RSI at 61.22 and MACD histogram at -0.0057 suggest the stock is oversold but not yet in a bearish phase. The Bollinger Bands show WMT is trading near the middle band, indicating a potential breakout or breakdown scenario. With $101.57 support and $106.25 resistance as key levels, traders should monitor volume and options expiration flows this Friday for directional clues.

In summary, Walmart’s options activity and technicals point to a high-probability bullish setup, but tariff risks and earnings volatility require caution. Positioning in $105–$103 calls and $101.57 stock entries offers a balanced approach to capitalize on the rebranding-driven momentum while hedging against near-term headwinds.