Walmart (WMT): Is $120 the Final Target Before a Strategic Pullback?

The recent performance of Walmart (WMT) has drawn significant attention from technical analysts, particularly as its stock price approaches the $120 level. With a year-to-date gain of 24.12% and a 52-week range of $79.81 to $117.45, the stock has exhibited a bullish trend punctuated by key corrections. This article examines whether $120 represents the final wave V target in WMT's Elliott Wave structure, leveraging Fibonacci extensions and momentum divergence analysis to assess entry timing for potential pullbacks.

Elliott Wave Structure and Fibonacci Targets

WMT's price action since April 2025 has followed a classic five-wave advance, originating from the $86–$77 "Blue Box" consolidation zone. According to Elliott Wave principles, wave IV has completed its corrective phase, and the stock is now in wave V, marked by three distinct swings into new highs. The $111–$120 range aligns with Fibonacci extension levels derived from the initial wave I (April 2025 low to July 2025 high), with the 1.618 extension projecting a target near $120. This suggests that $120 is a high-probability terminal point for wave V, after which a larger wave ((IV)) pullback is expected.

Analysts caution against chasing the rally at this level, as wave ((III))-a critical leg within the broader five-wave structure-may have already concluded. A 3, 7, or 11-swing correction is anticipated before wave ((V)) completes, offering disciplined entry opportunities for long-term investors. The Fibonacci 2.618 extension, while less likely, could push the stock beyond $125 if wave III extends further, but current data favors the 1.618 level as the primary target.

Momentum Divergence and Entry Timing

Technical indicators highlight mixed signals as WMT approaches $120. The 14-day RSI stands at 53.37, indicating neutral momentum without overbought or oversold conditions. However, the MACD has turned negative at -0.75, signaling bearish momentum despite a slight upward trend. This divergence-where price remains bullish while momentum weakens-suggests a potential reversal.

On the daily chart, the 50-day moving average remains above the 200-day line, forming a "golden cross" that supports short-term bullishness. Yet, the MACD line staying below the signal line underscores bearish pressure. Traders are advised to monitor volume patterns: increased volume on upward moves during consolidation phases could confirm the $120 target, while declining volume may signal premature exhaustion.

Strategic Entry Points and Risk Management

For investors seeking to capitalize on the anticipated pullback, precise timing is critical. The completion of a 3, 7, or 11-swing correction-consistent with Elliott Wave guidelines-would create a high-probability entry zone around $105–$110. This range aligns with the 50-day moving average and historical support levels identified in late 2025.

Layered limit orders near $105.00 on the 4-hour chart could optimize entry timing, as this level has historically acted as a breakout confirmation point. Additionally, the $95.26 support level remains a critical threshold; a break below this would invalidate the bullish case and extend the correction toward the $86–$77 Blue Box area.

Conclusion

WMT's $120 level appears to be a logical terminal point for wave V within its Elliott Wave structure, supported by Fibonacci extensions and mixed momentum indicators. While the stock's technical setup suggests a near-term pullback, disciplined entry strategies-rooted in wave count completion and Fibonacci confluence-can position investors to capitalize on the resumption of the uptrend. As always, combining technical analysis with fundamental insights, such as Walmart's resilience in digital advertising and tariff-related risks, will enhance decision-making in this dynamic market.