Walmart Stock Jumps 4.98% to $107.21 on Heavy Volume as Technicals Flash Bullish Signals

Walmart (WMT) concluded the latest session with a notable 4.98% gain to $107.21, extending its winning streak to three consecutive days for a cumulative 5.35% advance. This surge occurred alongside significantly elevated trading volume of 30.8 million shares, underscoring strong buyer conviction. The analysis below employs multiple technical frameworks to assess the stock's trajectory.
Candlestick Theory
The latest session formed a robust bullish candle with a wide range ($102.89–$107.92), closing near the high and erasing the prior three weeks' consolidation. This pattern signals decisive breakout momentum. Key resistance now lies at $107.92 (intraday high), while former resistance near $103.60 (October 10 high) has converted to support. The $100 psychological level provides secondary support, aligned with the 50-day moving average confluence zone.
Moving Average Theory
All critical moving averages exhibit bullish alignment: the 50-day MA ($100.83) > 100-day MA ($98.12) > 200-day MA ($95.21). The current price trades 6.3% above the 50-day MA, confirming a strong short-term uptrend. A Golden Cross (50-day crossing above 200-day) materialized in early October, reinforcing the long-term bullish structure. Sustained trading above all key MAs suggests continued momentum, though a pullback toward the 50-day MA may offer consolidation opportunities.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (12,26,9) shows a bullish histogram expansion above the signal line, reflecting accelerating upward momentum. KDJ oscillators (K: 84, D: 76, J: 92) indicate overbought territory, with the %K line steeply rising above %D. While this hints at near-term exhaustion risk, the MACD-KDJ confluence primarily supports continuation strength. Monitor for potential bearish divergences if price advances without corresponding indicator highs.
Bollinger Bands
Price has thrust into the upper band (106.20) after two weeks of range-bound trading within the bands, signaling a volatility expansion breakout. The bandwidth had contracted to multi-week lows preceding this move—a textbook "Bollinger Squeeze" resolution. Upper band violations often precede short-term consolidation, but closes above the band suggest trend extension. Lower band support resides near $101.50.
Volume-Price Relationship
The breakout occurred on the highest volume in three weeks (30.8M shares)—65% above the 20-day average—validating institutional participation. Volume progressively increased during the three-day rally, confirming accumulation. The Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) for the latest session was $106.05, positioning the close above this level as technically affirmative. Declining volume on pullbacks would reinforce underlying demand.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI reading of 76 breaches the overbought threshold (>70), suggesting stretched near-term conditions. While this may precede consolidation, RSI alone doesn’t signal reversal; similarly elevated readings persisted during late September’s advance. Traders should prioritize price action and seek bearish divergences (e.g., higher highs in price with lower highs in RSI) for reversal warnings, absent currently.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying the 12-month rally from the low of $80.51 (October 15, 2024) to $107.92 (October 14, 2025), key retracement levels are $101.45 (23.6%), $98.45 (38.2%), and $94.22 (50%). Recent consolidation respected the 23.6% level, reinforcing it as a high-probability support zone. The latest breakout positions $107.92 (100% extension) as the immediate technical target, with $111.70 (127.2% extension) emerging as the next resistance should the breakout sustain.
Confluence and Divergence Notes
A bullish confluence exists with the breakout above $103.60 (prior resistance/candlestick support), volume confirmation, MACD acceleration, and Bollinger Band expansion. While RSI and KDJ indicate overbought risk, no bearish divergences are evident. The sole caution stems from short-term indicators nearing historically stretched territory, suggesting pullbacks to $103.60 support may offer favorable entries rather than signaling trend reversal. The moving average stack implies structural integrity for further gains.