Walmart Holds the Line on Full-Year Guidance Amid Tariff Uncertainty

Walmart reaffirmed its full-year sales and earnings guidance at its annual Investment Community Meeting on Wednesday, offering a stabilizing message to a market increasingly rattled by macroeconomic volatility and a widening global trade war. However, the company did pull its first-quarter operating income outlook, citing the need for “flexibility” as tariffs on key supplier countries like China and Vietnam take effect.

The world’s largest retailer said it still expects first-quarter net sales to rise between 3% and 4%, in line with its previous forecast, but removed the prior operating income growth target of 0.5% to 2%. CFO John David Rainey explained that several variables—namely a less favorable category mix, rising casualty claims expense, and the desire to maintain pricing power—made it prudent to refrain from reaffirming the bottom line target. “The market is nervous,” Rainey acknowledged, “but we’re confident in our outlook.”

The move comes just hours after the Biden administration enacted sweeping tariffs, including a 104% levy on Chinese imports and a 46% duty on Vietnamese goods. Walmart, as the largest U.S. importer, is deeply exposed to both regions. Roughly 60% of its import volume originates in China, and Vietnam remains among its top five sourcing countries. CEO Doug McMillon noted that while the operating backdrop has shifted, the company’s mission remains consistent. “We’ve learned how to manage through turbulent periods,” he said. “We’re focused on keeping prices as low as we can and managing our expenses and inventory well.”

McMillon also pointed to Walmart’s logistical advantage, highlighting that its delivery network now covers 93% of U.S. households. This, combined with scale advantages and omnichannel investments, may provide a cushion against inflationary and tariff-related headwinds. Still, management made clear that uncertainty surrounding trade and consumer behavior warrants a more cautious near-term outlook.

Walmart’s decision to maintain its full-year guidance reflects its belief in long-term execution, even as near-term pressures mount. For fiscal 2026, the company still expects net sales growth of 3% to 4%, and adjusted operating income growth of 3.5% to 5.5%. EPS guidance remains unchanged at $2.50 to $2.60, despite headwinds from currency fluctuations and the integration of smart-TV maker Vizio.

Wednesday’s investor event also delivered fresh insights into the shifting consumer landscape. Walmart has recently gained traction with higher-income demographics, particularly in categories like apparel, beauty, and food, according to a Piper Sandler teen survey. The same survey showed Target losing share in those same categories. Management acknowledged that consumer sentiment has turned more volatile, with Rainey noting “week-to-week and even day-to-day” swings in demand as shoppers respond to headlines and inflationary pressures.

Still, the company sees resilience in areas like e-commerce, which is expected to post profitability in Q1 for the first time. Walmart also continues to lean into high-frequency, lower-margin categories such as groceries and household essentials, even as that puts pressure on merchandise mix and margins. The ability to manage that dynamic effectively is now front and center.

The stakes are high for Walmart, not only because of its size and scope, but because its commentary is often viewed as a bellwether for the broader retail and consumer economy. Today’s guidance pullback reflects the growing difficulty of forecasting in a volatile macro environment. The decision mirrors similar moves made by companies in early 2020 during the onset of COVID-19, when full-year visibility evaporated amid a cascade of global shocks.

Later today, Costco will report its monthly sales figures, offering investors another high-profile read on consumer health. But for now, all eyes remain on Walmart. Its cautious but steady tone—paired with operational discipline and omnichannel momentum—suggests a retailer attempting to thread the needle in a market defined by uncertainty.

Walmart shares rose 3.7% on Wednesday morning, reflecting investor relief that the long-term guidance remains intact despite the turbulence. Whether that optimism holds will likely hinge on how effectively the company can absorb the next wave of cost pressures without alienating price-sensitive shoppers.