Walmart's Ad Tech Reimagined: How a Revised Trade Desk Partnership Could Reshape the Retail Advertising Landscape and Undermine Amazon's Dominance

In 2025, the retail media network (RMN) market is undergoing a seismic shift as Walmart Inc. (WMT) redefines its ad tech strategy, challenging Amazon's (AMZN) long-standing dominance in the $62 billion U.S. retail media space. By revising its partnership with The Trade Desk (TTD), Walmart has signaled a strategic pivot toward self-sufficiency in ad tech, leveraging first-party data and cross-platform partnerships to build a privacy-compliant alternative to Amazon's closed ecosystem. This move not only reshapes the competitive landscape but also raises critical questions for investors about the future of ad tech and the sustainability of third-party platforms in an era of vertical integration.

The Walmart-Trade Desk Shift: From Exclusivity to Strategic Flexibility

For four years, Walmart's exclusive partnership with The Trade Desk granted advertisers access to its shopper data only through TTD's programmatic ad-buying tools. This arrangement positioned The Trade Desk as a key enabler of Walmart's ad tech growth, fueling its role in powering Walmart Connect's $4.4 billion ad revenue projection for 2025. However, in early 2025, Walmart reportedly eliminated the exclusivity clause, allowing advertisers to access its data via competing platforms. This shift, while not a complete severance of ties, has already triggered a 6% drop in The Trade Desk's stock price and raised concerns about its long-term relevance in the retail media space.

The revised partnership reflects Walmart's broader strategy to reduce reliance on third-party ad tech providers and build a scalable, in-house advertising infrastructure. By integrating AI-driven tools, real-time optimization, and a self-service API for display ads, Walmart is creating a more flexible ecosystem that appeals to both small brands and large advertisers. Partnerships with ad tech firms like Pacvue, Skai, and DataCaciques further enhance its capabilities, while collaborations with Roku and TikTok expand its reach into connected TV (CTV) and social commerce. These moves position Walmart to capture a larger share of the $12 billion CTV ad market and challenge Amazon's 67% dominance in the U.S. retail media sector.

Walmart's First-Party Data Edge: A Privacy-Compliant Alternative to Amazon

Walmart's 60 million+ Walmart+ members and robust loyalty program provide a treasure trove of first-party data, enabling hyper-personalized ad targeting without violating privacy regulations. This data advantage allows Walmart to offer advertisers a privacy-compliant alternative to Amazon's closed-loop ecosystem, which relies heavily on third-party cookies and proprietary algorithms. By leveraging AI-powered catalog optimization and clean room environments, Walmart is delivering measurable ROI for brands while maintaining consumer trust—a critical differentiator in an era of tightening data privacy laws.

Amazon, by contrast, has long dominated the RMN market with its Retail Ad Service, which generated $56.2 billion in revenue in 2024. However, its reliance on a closed ecosystem and lack of cross-platform integration has left it vulnerable to competition from retailers like Walmart, which are now offering advertisers greater flexibility and transparency. Walmart's ability to blend in-store and digital experiences through partnerships like its CTV collaboration with Roku further underscores its potential to erode Amazon's market share.

The Trade Desk's Dilemma: Short-Term Gains vs. Long-Term Risks

While The Trade Desk currently benefits from Walmart's ad tech expansion, its long-term prospects are clouded by the retailer's push toward in-house solutions. Amazon's own transition from a Trade Desk partner to a competitor—via its proprietary DSP—serves as a cautionary tale for TTD. Walmart's strategic flexibility to diversify its ad tech partnerships, coupled with its first-party data advantage, could erode The Trade Desk's margins and market position over time.

Investors should monitor two key metrics:
1. Walmart's ad revenue growth—If the retailer's $4.4 billion projection materializes, it could signal a successful pivot to self-sufficiency.
2. The Trade Desk's client retention rate—A decline in Walmart's reliance on TTD's tools would likely accelerate its stock's downward trajectory.

Investment Implications: Retailers vs. Ad Tech

For investors, the Walmart-Trade Desk dynamic highlights a broader trend: the rise of in-house ad tech solutions and the decline of third-party platforms. While Amazon and Walmart are well-positioned to capture the lion's share of the RMN market, ad tech players like The Trade Desk face an uncertain future. Here's how to navigate the opportunities and risks:

1. Walmart (WMT): A long-term buy for investors seeking exposure to the RMN boom. Its ad tech division, Walmart Connect, is a high-margin growth engine with the potential to rival Amazon.
2. Amazon (AMZN): A hold, as its dominance is being challenged by Walmart's cross-platform strategy. However, its scale and first-party data still provide a strong moat.
3. The Trade Desk (TTD): A short-term hold with a cautious outlook. While it benefits from Walmart's current ad expansion, its long-term viability depends on its ability to adapt to a fragmented ad tech landscape.

Conclusion: The Future of Retail Media is Fragmented

Walmart's revised partnership with The Trade Desk is a microcosm of the broader shift in the RMN market. As retailers assert greater control over their ad tech ecosystems, the role of third-party platforms is diminishing. For investors, the key takeaway is clear: the future of retail media lies in first-party data, cross-platform integration, and in-house innovation. Walmart's strategic reimagining of its ad tech stack not only undercuts Amazon's dominance but also redefines the value proposition of ad tech players in an increasingly competitive and fragmented market.