Wall Street Awaits Key Inflation Data and Trump-Putin Summit

US stocks are set for a muted open as investors await key US economic data, including the inflation report, and a summit between US President Donald Trump and Russia's Vladimir Putin. Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska on Friday, with renewed diplomatic efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war. The S&P 500 E-Mini futures are up 0.09%, and the Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures are up 0.05%.

US stocks are poised for a muted opening on Monday, July 2, 2025, as investors eagerly await the release of key economic data and the upcoming summit between US President Donald Trump and Russia’s Vladimir Putin. The S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are up 0.09%, and the Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are up 0.05%, indicating a cautious start to the trading week [1].

The primary focus is on the upcoming inflation report and other economic indicators, which are expected to provide insights into the current state of the US economy. The recent US ISM services PMI showed an unexpected increase in the prices paid sub-index, underscoring the persistent influence of inflation [1].

Additionally, the summit between Trump and Putin on Friday is anticipated to bring renewed diplomatic efforts to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict. While the weekend saw intense diplomacy among US, Ukrainian, and European officials, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has maintained his refusal to cede territory occupied by Russia [1].

The weekend’s trading session saw mixed results, with Gilead Sciences (GILD) and Monster Beverage (MNST) posting significant gains due to strong Q2 results and guidance updates. Conversely, Trade Desk (TTD) experienced a substantial drop following weak Q3 revenue guidance and the announcement of a new CFO [1].

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.258%, down from 4.84%, reflecting a slight easing in investor sentiment [1]. The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down 0.24% as investors brace for a week dominated by key economic data and geopolitical developments [1].

The U.S. economic data slate is empty on Monday, but investors will closely monitor the U.S. consumer inflation report for July, which is expected to be the main highlight of the week. Other noteworthy data releases include the U.S. PPI, the Core PPI, Initial Jobless Claims, the Export Price Index, the Import Price Index, the Empire State Manufacturing Index, Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production, and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (preliminary) [1].

Second-quarter corporate earnings season is winding down, but several notable companies are due to report this week, including Cisco (CSCO), Applied Materials (AMAT), Deere & Company (DE), CoreWeave (CRWV), and Circle (CRCL). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P 500 companies are on track to post a 9.1% increase in Q2 profits from a year earlier, well above analysts’ forecast of 2.8% [1].

Investors will also hear perspectives from several Fed officials, including Barkin, Schmid, Goolsbee, and Bostic, throughout the week. Meanwhile, the U.S. rate futures have priced in an 88.4% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and an 11.6% chance of no rate change at the Fed’s monetary policy committee meeting next month [1].

The U.S. consumer inflation report for July will be the main highlight this week. The recent U.S. ISM services PMI showed an unexpected increase in the prices paid sub-index, serving as a reminder that “inflation is still a force to be reckoned with,” according to Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG. Citi economists said investors will be watching to gauge the extent to which tariffs are impacting prices after June’s report showed “early signs of larger increases in goods prices.” Investors will also monitor July retail sales data for clues on how tariffs are impacting consumers [1].

Investors will also monitor July retail sales data for clues on how tariffs are impacting consumers. Other noteworthy data releases include the U.S. PPI, the Core PPI, Initial Jobless Claims, the Export Price Index, the Import Price Index, the Empire State Manufacturing Index, Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production, and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (preliminary) [1].

Second-quarter corporate earnings season is winding down, but several notable companies are due to report this week, including Cisco (CSCO), Applied Materials (AMAT), Deere & Company (DE), CoreWeave (CRWV), and Circle (CRCL). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P 500 companies are on track to post a 9.1% increase in Q2 profits from a year earlier, well above analysts’ forecast of 2.8% [1].

In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.258%, down from 4.84%, reflecting a slight easing in investor sentiment [1]. The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down 0.24% as investors brace for a week dominated by key economic data and geopolitical developments [1].

Defense stocks fell on Monday as a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday fueled hopes for a potential Ukraine peace deal. At the same time, healthcare stocks outperformed [1].

Final data from the statistics agency Istat confirmed on Monday that Italy’s annual inflation rate held steady at 1.7% in July. Meanwhile, the trade truce between the U.S. and China is set to expire tomorrow, with uncertainty over whether it will be extended or if tensions will reignite [1].

Investors are also awaiting the release of the second estimate of the Eurozone’s second-quarter GDP later this week. Germany’s and the Eurozone’s ZEW economic sentiment indexes for August will also be in focus this week, as they will provide insight into how much relatively high U.S. tariffs on Eurozone goods have impacted sentiment [1].

In corporate news, Orsted AS (ORSTE.C.DX) tumbled over -26% after the Danish wind farm developer announced plans for a 60-billion-crown ($9.4 billion) rights issue, citing unfavorable developments in the U.S. offshore wind market. Also, Northern Data AG (NB2.D.DX) sank more than -13% after Rumble said it was weighing an offer of about $1.17 billion for the German AI cloud company [1].

Italy’s CPI data was released today. The Italian July CPI rose +0.4% m/m and +1.7% y/y, in line with expectations. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.34%, while Japan’s financial markets were closed for a holiday. China’s Shanghai Composite Index ended higher today as investors shrugged off underwhelming inflation data from the country and turned their attention to U.S.-China trade truce developments [1].

Liquor and AI-related stocks led the gains on Monday. Also, lithium stocks jumped after battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. suspended operations at a major mine in China. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics released over the weekend showed that China’s factory deflation persisted into the 34th month in July, while consumer prices held steady, highlighting the impact of weak domestic demand and ongoing trade uncertainty on consumer and business sentiment [1].

Barclays analysts said in a research note that China’s deflationary pressures are likely to persist into the second half of the year. Meanwhile, investors are watching to see if the tariff truce between Beijing and Washington will be extended as the August 12th deadline nears. Analysts widely anticipate a 90-day extension of the trade truce following earlier talks in Stockholm [1].

Ahead of the deadline, U.S. President Trump wrote on social media that he hoped China would significantly increase its purchases of American soybeans. The Financial Times reported on Sunday that China wants the U.S. to relax export controls on a critical component for AI chips as part of a trade deal before a possible summit between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping [1].

In other news, Bloomberg reported that Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices agreed to pay 15% of their revenues from Chinese AI chip sales to the U.S. government under a deal to obtain export licenses. Investor focus this week is on a slew of China’s official data, including industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment, and unemployment figures, which will provide the most comprehensive view yet of the country’s economic momentum in July. Investors are also awaiting earnings reports from tech heavyweights later this week, including Tencent, Meituan, JD.com, and Alibaba [1].

The Chinese July CPI rose +0.4% m/m and was unchanged y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and -0.1% y/y. The Chinese July PPI fell -3.6% y/y, weaker than expectations of -3.4% y/y. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index was closed today for the Mountain Day holiday. The markets will reopen on Tuesday. Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) fell over -2%, and Nvidia (NVDA) dropped more than -1% in pre-market trading following reports that both companies agreed to pay 15% of their revenues from Chinese AI chip sales to the U.S. government under a deal to obtain export licenses. Tegna (TGNA) jumped over +29% in pre-market trading after the Wall Street Journal reported that Nexstar Media Group was in advanced talks to acquire the company [1].

Cryptocurrency-exposed