Vow ASA: Insider Buying Tips the Scales in Decarbonization's Favor

The world's transition to sustainable energy is no longer a distant ideal—it's a roaring market opportunity. Few companies are positioned as strategically as Vow ASA, a Norwegian leader in waste-to-energy solutions, which recently saw its top executives dramatically increase their stakes in the firm. Chairman Thomas Borgen's purchase of 250,000 shares and Ulf Tore Hekneby's acquisition of 81,311 shares signal more than just confidence—they mark a contrarian bet on a company poised to capitalize on ESG-driven demand and regulatory tailwinds. Here's why investors should take notice.

Insider Activity: A Contrarian Signal Amid Skepticism

Borgen's purchase, which boosted his and his associates' total holdings to 1,026,291 shares, marks the largest single insider stake increase in Vow's recent history. Hekneby's transaction, bringing his group's holdings to 2,351,311 shares, underscores a collective vote of confidence from the company's leadership. These moves are particularly telling given the stock's recent volatility: shares of VOW:OSL dipped below its 15-day moving average in June 2025, closing at 1.98 NOK on June 13—a 66% rebound from its 52-week low of 1.18 NOK but still undervalued relative to its growth prospects.

Critically, these purchases follow a December 2024 rights issue, where Borgen and his entities acquired over 350,000 new shares, signaling sustained commitment. Such insider participation during periods of market uncertainty often precedes upward revaluations—a pattern seen in prior decarbonization plays like NextEra Energy and Brookfield Renewable.

The Decarbonization Catalyst: Waste-to-Energy at Scale

Vow ASA's core business—converting waste into energy via its proprietary Biogreen pyrolysis process—aligns perfectly with global decarbonization mandates. The company's systems, deployed across Europe and North America, reduce landfill dependency while generating electricity and biochar, a carbon-negative soil additive. With 70% of global municipalities still lacking advanced waste management infrastructure, Vow's scalable solutions are primed for exponential growth.

The firm's recent leadership changes—a new CEO (Gunnar Pedersen) and CFO (Cecilie Brænd Hekneby)—signal a shift toward operational discipline and financial transparency. This, paired with its three profit-generating segments (Industrial, Maritime, and Aftersales), creates a robust moat against competitors in an increasingly regulated sector.

Why the Market is Missing the Boat

Despite its strategic advantages, Vow's valuation remains muted. At 1.98 NOK, the stock trades at just 8.5x forward EV/EBITDA, a discount to peers like Veolia Environnement (12x) and Waste Management (14x). This undervaluation stems from near-term headwinds: delayed contracts in the U.S. and EU permitting bottlenecks. Yet, these challenges are temporary.

Consider the $840 billion global waste-to-energy market, projected to grow at 6.2% CAGR through 2030. Vow's technological edge—its pyrolysis process achieves 90% energy efficiency versus incineration's 40%—positions it to capture a disproportionate share. Regulatory tailwinds, including the EU's Waste Framework Directive and U.S. Climate Action Plan, further incentivize companies to adopt sustainable waste solutions, creating a $15 billion addressable market opportunity for Vow in the next five years.

Investment Thesis: Buy Now, Harvest Later

The confluence of insider buying, undervaluation, and macro tailwinds makes Vow ASA a compelling contrarian play. Here's the roadmap:
1. Near-term: The stock's dip below its 15-day moving average creates a buy point at 2.0 NOK. Technical rebound tests of this level could trigger momentum-driven buying.
2. Medium-term: Execution of a 2025-2027 growth plan—including contracts in Italy and Poland—will validate the business model.
3. Long-term: The $300 million Biogreen factory expansion in Norway, set for completion in 2026, will reduce costs and boost scalability.

Risks Worth Managing

Skeptics will point to execution risks—permitting delays, project overruns, or pricing pressure in commoditized markets. However, Vow's 95% gross margins (driven by proprietary tech) and 10-year client contracts mitigate these concerns. The stock's beta of 1.2 also suggests it will outperform in a rising sustainability tide.

Final Call: A Decarbonization Leader at a Bargain Price

Insider buying is often the canary in the coal mine for undervalued opportunities. In Vow ASA's case, the signal is clear: leadership is doubling down on a company with scalable tech, regulatory tailwinds, and a $1.4 trillion industry at its back. Investors who act now—before the market catches up—could reap outsized rewards as decarbonization transitions from buzzword to balance sheet.

Recommendation: Buy VOW:OSL at 2.0 NOK, with a price target of 3.5 NOK by end-2026. Set a stop-loss at 1.7 NOK to manage volatility. The green transition isn't slowing down—neither should your portfolio.