Vote-a-Rama Begins: Billions, Backlash, and the Big Beautiful Push

The Senate's massive domestic policy proposal, dubbed the "One, Big, Beautiful Bill Act", has advanced past a key procedural hurdle and now heads toward final passage. With a price tag of approximately $3.3 trillion over ten years according to updated Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates, the legislation is set to reshape tax policy, health care spending, energy incentives, and industrial priorities. Despite deep internal tensions, Republicans appear to have secured enough votes to pass the bill, barring any last-minute defections. If approved, it will return to the House for reconciliation before landing on President Trump's desk, with the administration targeting July 4 as a ceremonial deadline.

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Key elements of the bill include a boost to defense spending, particularly in shipbuilding, missile systems, and the Golden Dome program. It also introduces a conditional moratorium on state-level AI laws, increases funding for rural hospitals, and extends major provisions of the 2017 Trump tax cuts. On the social front, it contains sweeping Medicaid reforms, including a controversial new cap on medical provider taxes and a rollback of the federal cost-sharing provisions for expansion populations. These provisions have drawn sharp opposition from some moderate Republicans, including Sen. Thom Tillis, who announced he will not seek reelection due to the bill's impact on his state.

Energy and environmental sectors are among the most heavily impacted. The bill accelerates the phaseout of tax credits for wind, solar, and hydrogen projects by 2027, earlier than prior drafts. It also imposes a new excise tax on renewable energy developments that utilize components sourced from countries deemed hostile to U.S. interests, such as China. This provision applies even to projects that do not receive federal tax credits, drawing criticism from clean energy advocates who warn it could raise installation costs by 10% to 20%. However, domestic manufacturers like First Solar and GE Vernova are seen as potential beneficiaries due to a renewed emphasis on U.S.-sourced supply chains.

The bill also eliminates electric vehicle (EV) tax credits after September, which prompted public criticism from Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Musk called the legislation "utterly insane and destructive", arguing it undermines the future competitiveness of U.S. industry. EV makers, clean energy developers, and consumer advocacy groups have all raised concerns about the bill’s rapid withdrawal of support for emerging technologies.

One of the most controversial provisions—the so-called "revenge tax" in Section 899—was ultimately removed. That section would have allowed the U.S. to impose retaliatory taxes on countries that target U.S. multinationals with digital service levies. Its removal followed a breakthrough agreement at the G7, where major economies pledged to adjust their tax policies to avoid triggering a trade dispute. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that dropping Section 899 could save U.S. companies $100 billion in foreign tax liabilities over the next decade.

Despite fiscal conservatives' initial resistance, Republican leadership made several concessions to shore up votes. The rural hospital fund was increased from $15 billion to $25 billion, and the Medicaid cap implementation was delayed to avoid near-term disruptions. While some GOP senators like Rand Paul and Thom Tillis continue to oppose the bill, the leadership has expressed confidence that the current draft will survive the Senate floor and pass to the House without significant changes.

Timing remains fluid. After the Senate vote-a-rama, which began Monday morning and could extend into Tuesday, the bill will return to the House for final reconciliation. If both chambers align on the text, it could be sent to President Trump for signature just before Independence Day. However, even if the timeline slips, there is no immediate fiscal cliff. The 2017 tax cuts do not expire until year-end, and the debt limit is not expected to become binding until August.

In sum, the "Big Beautiful Bill" is a sweeping, nearly 1,000-page piece of legislation that attempts to recalibrate the U.S. economy's fiscal priorities. It has drawn praise for its support of defense and rural health, while criticism has focused on the aggressive rollback of renewable energy incentives and Medicaid spending. With the removal of Section 899 and the likely passage in both chambers, investors and policymakers are now turning to the implementation phase—and the downstream effects across energy, healthcare, and industrial sectors.