Vistra Rises 3.88% on Bullish Reversal and Key Support Level Confirmation

Vistra (VST) closed the most recent session up 3.88%, extending a short-term bullish momentum that has emerged after a volatile correction phase. The stock’s price action over the past month reveals a complex interplay of candlestick patterns and key levels. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed on December 17 (a 7.77% decline) was followed by a strong bullish reversal on December 18, suggesting potential short-term equilibrium around the 162.67 support level. Resistance appears clustered near 175.14, where a previous high was rejected, and 173.45, a recent intraday peak. The 166.17 level, where the stock closed, aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the December 12–17 swing, reinforcing its psychological significance.
Candlestick Theory

The recent price action exhibits a bullish harami pattern on December 18, with the candle body contained within the prior day’s range, signaling a potential reversal from oversold conditions. Key support levels include 162.67 (a multi-day floor) and 158.7 (a prior low), while resistance is concentrated at 173.45, 175.14, and the 200-day moving average (~170.50). A break above 175.14 could trigger a retest of the December 11 high at 174.60, whereas a breach below 162.67 may expose the 158.7 level.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA (~168.50) and 100-day MA (~170.50) are converging with the 200-day MA (~169.50), indicating a potential trend flattening. The stock closed above the 50-day MA, suggesting short-term bullish bias, but the 50-day MA’s proximity to the 100-day MA implies weakening momentum. A sustained close above 173.45 could reinvigorate the 50-day MA as a dynamic support, while a drop below 166.17 may see the 100-day MA act as a critical barrier.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram expanded on December 18, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, confirming bullish momentum. The KDJ (Stochastic) indicator entered overbought territory (K=85, D=78), aligning with the 3.88% rally. While this suggests a potential pullback, the RSI’s overbought condition (discussed below) and the absence of bearish divergences in the KDJ suggest the uptrend may persist. A bearish crossover in the MACD would be a critical warning sign for near-term weakness.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility spiked on December 17–18, with the price touching the upper band on the rally and the lower band on the prior day’s selloff. The recent contraction in band width (following the December 17–18 volatility) hints at a potential breakout, with the 166.17 close suggesting a preference for upward bias. If the bands reflate, a sustained move beyond 173.45 or a retest of 162.67 could confirm the direction.
Volume-Price Relationship
Trading volume surged on December 18 (7.65 million shares) during the 3.88% rally, validating the bullish move. However, volume declined on the prior day’s 7.77% drop, indicating weaker bearish conviction. The recent volume profile suggests buyers are stepping in at 162.67–166.17, but a sharp drop in volume during a rally above 173.45 could signal a lack of follow-through.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI closed at ~72, entering overbought territory, consistent with the KDJ reading. While this typically warns of a pullback, the RSI’s failure to form bearish divergences (price higher lows with lower RSI lows) suggests the rally may continue. A drop below 50 would be a bearish catalyst, but a rebound above 60 could indicate trend resilience.
Fibonacci Retracement
Visualizing the key Fibonacci levels on a price chart, the 61.8% retracement level at 166.17 is currently acting as a pivot, with the 50% level (~168.00) and 38.2% level (~169.00) as potential targets if the uptrend holds. A breakdown below 162.67 (the 38.2% level of a broader December 12–17 correction) would invalidate the Fibonacci-based bullish case.
Confluence and Divergences
The strongest confluence occurs at 166.17, where the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, 50-day MA, and recent candlestick support align. This level is critical for trend continuation. Divergences to monitor include a bearish KDJ crossover or a MACD histogram contraction, which could precede a reversal. The RSI’s overbought condition is a cautionary note, but the absence of bearish divergences suggests the rally may outlast typical overbought thresholds.

The near-term outlook for VST is cautiously bullish, with key levels at 162.67 (support), 166.17 (pivot), and 173.45 (resistance) defining the immediate trading range. While the technical indicators broadly support continuation of the rally, traders should remain vigilant for divergences in momentum oscillators and volatility shifts via Bollinger Bands. A break above 173.45 with increasing volume would strengthen the case for a retest of the December 11 high, whereas a close below 162.67 could initiate a deeper correction.