Vistra Plunges 6.28% to $204.24 as Bearish Signals Intensify

Vistra's most recent trading session saw a significant decline of 6.28%, closing at $204.24 after trading between $203.46 and $212.77. This sharp pullback occurred on elevated volume of 6.5 million shares, establishing $200-$203 as immediate support and the $210-$213 zone as new resistance following rejection near the $219 level just two sessions prior.
Candlestick Theory
Recent sessions reveal a bearish reversal pattern. The September 22nd candle formed a long green body (close $217.92 after $207.80-$219.82 range), suggesting bullish exhaustion near all-time highs. This was immediately invalidated by September 23rd’s large bearish engulfing candle (-6.28%), confirming resistance near $220. The sequence indicates distribution, with $198-$200 emerging as critical support (multi-test zone from August) and $211-$212 acting as overhead resistance due to prior consolidation.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA ($208.20) crossed below the 100-day MA ($188.40) in early September, signaling intermediate-term bearish momentum. Current price trades below the 50-day but above the ascending 200-day MA ($158.70), indicating conflicting signals – short-term bearishness within a longer-term uptrend. The 200-day MA maintains positive slope since January 2025, though sustained trading under the 50-day suggests further consolidation is likely before meaningful recovery.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) displays a bearish histogram expansion below the signal line and zero boundary, confirming accelerating downside momentum. KDJ readings (K:27, D:42, J:-3) show %J deeply oversold, though %K hasn’t crossed above %D to signal reversal. Both oscillators align in suggesting continued downward pressure, though KDJ’s extreme %J warns of potential technical bounce near support zones. The MACD’s negative divergence preceding the recent drop highlights waning upside strength.
Bollinger Bands
Price pierced the lower band ($202) during September 23rd’s selloff, marking the first close below bands in three months. Bandwidth expanded 28% this week, reflecting volatility breakout after August’s contraction. The sub-band breach often precedes mean-reversion bounces, but bands remain expanding, implying continued volatility. Recovery above $208 (20-day SMA) would be necessary to neutralize bearish pressure.
Volume-Price Relationship
Distribution signals emerged as September’s rally to $219 occurred on declining volume, culminating in the September 23rd breakdown on 40% above-average volume – a bearish confirmation. Notable accumulation appeared on September 10th’s +7.96% surge (9.7M shares vs. 5M avg), making $190-$195 a value zone. Current volume intensity on downside suggests capitulation, though sustainability requires follow-through confirmation.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
14-day RSI (41) exited neutral territory toward oversold, down from 67 earlier this month. While not yet at oversold extremes (<30), the velocity of decline is notable. Bearish divergence formed in early September as price made higher highs while RSI made lower highs – a precursor to this pullback. Current levels imply further downside room exists before reaching historical reversal zones.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the primary uptrend from October 2024 low ($113.62) to July 2025 peak ($219.82), key supports emerge: 23.6% ($198.01), 38.2% ($182.47), and 50% ($166.72). Current price tests the 23.6% retracement level ($198), which aligns with psychologically significant $200 support. This zone represents a critical confluence level; failure here would expose the 38.2% retracement ($182.47).
Confluence and Divergence Observations
Confluence exists around the $198-$200 support, combining the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, psychological $200 barrier, and prior price consolidation structure. Divergence appeared between price and RSI in early September – when price peaked near $220, RSI failed to exceed its prior high (bearish signal now validated). KDJ’s extreme %J reading diverges from RSI’s neutral positioning, reflecting conflicting momentum signals but suggesting oversold pressure may be nearing exhaustion. The probability of a technical bounce increases near $198-$200, though MACD’s bearish cross and volume confirmation of breakdown support continued cautious positioning.