Vistra Corp. (VST) Shines Amid AI Demand, Mid-Cap Growth Rebound

ClearBridge Mid Cap Growth Strategy highlighted Vistra Corp. (VST) as a top contributor in Q2, citing better-than-anticipated results by leading AI developers and IT stocks, easing concerns about AI demand and data center buildouts, and pointing to continued increases in power demand. Vistra Corp. is an integrated retail electricity and power generation company with a market capitalization of $65.934 billion.

Vistra Corp. (VST) has experienced a remarkable stock price surge of 53.5% since Jim Cramer praised the company in October 2024. This significant increase can be attributed to a strong first-quarter earnings report and a strategic acquisition to diversify its natural gas power generation portfolio. Cramer's endorsement highlighted Vistra's exposure to the data center industry, which is a voracious consumer of energy [1].

Vistra Corp., a significant American utility with a robust power generation portfolio that includes nuclear power, has seen its stock price surge by 53.5% since Jim Cramer praised the firm in October 2024. This remarkable increase can be attributed to several key factors, including a strong first-quarter earnings report and a strategic acquisition to diversify its natural gas power generation portfolio. Cramer's recent comments have highlighted Vistra's exposure to the burgeoning data center industry, which is a voracious consumer of energy. The company's ability to provide reliable, carbon-free energy through its nuclear capacity has positioned it favorably in this high-demand sector. While Cramer acknowledged that the stock had seen a substantial 479% move and might be overdone, he also suggested that it could present an opportunity for investors during pullbacks [1].

Vistra's stock has benefited from positive market sentiment and analyst upgrades, reflecting strong performance and strategic growth initiatives. The company's recent third-quarter earnings report showcased a net income rise to $1.84 billion, up from $502 million the previous year, and a revenue of $6.29 billion, exceeding expectations [1]. Additionally, Vistra's strategic buyback program, which was recently increased by $1 billion, has contributed to a more attractive supply-demand equation for its shares [1].

Analysts have adjusted their price targets upward, with Jefferies and UBS among others predicting substantial share value increases, reflecting strong market confidence in Vistra's trajectory. The company's strategic investments in new generation projects and capital return strategies have bolstered investor sentiment for future growth [1].

Irving, Texas-based Vistra Corp. operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company. With a market cap of $64.5 billion, the company is also involved in wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel production, and fuel logistics management activities [2]. Shares of the leading integrated retail electricity and power generation company have considerably outperformed the broader market over the past year. VST has gained 128.6% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied nearly 16.1%. In 2025, VST stock is up 38.1%, surpassing the SPX’s 10% rise on a YTD basis [2].

Vistra’s outperformance stems from its strategic position in the U.S. energy transition, driven by its advanced energy storage systems, diversified portfolio of renewables, gas, and storage assets, and expansion of clean energy projects. The company's acquisition of natural gas facilities also positions it to meet rising demand from AI data centers, solidifying its role as a reliable power provider in a market increasingly focused on stability and decarbonization [2].

On Aug. 7, VST shares closed up more than 2% after reporting its Q2 results. Its revenue advanced 10.5% year-over-year to $4.3 billion. The company’s adjusted EBITDA stood at $1.3 billion, down 4.5% from the year-ago quarter [2].

For the current fiscal year, ending in December, analysts expect VST’s EPS to decline 10% to $6.30 on a diluted basis. The company’s earnings surprise history is mixed. It beat or matched the consensus estimate in three of the last four quarters while missing the forecast on another occasion [2].

Among the 15 analysts covering VST stock, the consensus is a “Strong Buy.” That’s based on 12 “Strong Buy” ratings, and three “Holds.” The configuration has been consistent over the past three months [2].

On Aug. 21, Morgan Stanley (MS) analyst David Arcaro kept an “Overweight” rating on VST and raised the price target to $207, implying a potential upside of 8.7% from current levels [2]. The mean price target of $224.86 represents an 18.1% premium to VST’s current price levels. The Street-high price target of $295 suggests an ambitious upside potential of 54.9% [2].

Vistra Corp. ranks among the best performing utilities stocks to buy now. On August 20, Melius Research assumed coverage of Vistra Corp. with a Buy rating and a $194 price target. The firm recognized Vistra as a significant player in the power markets, given its 41 GW of generating capacity from nuclear, natural gas, coal, and solar sources in addition to its battery storage capabilities [3].

ClearBridge Mid Cap Growth Strategy highlighted Vistra Corp. (VST) as a top contributor in Q2, citing better-than-anticipated results by leading AI developers and IT stocks, easing concerns about AI demand and data center buildouts, and pointing to continued increases in power demand [4].

References:
[1] https://www.ainvest.com/news/vistra-corp-vst-surges-53-5-jim-cramer-endorsement-2508/
[2] https://www.barchart.com/story/news/34365578/are-wall-street-analysts-predicting-vistra-stock-will-climb-or-sink
[3] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vistra-corp-vst-stock-rated-050145181.html
[4] https://www.timothysykes.com/news/vistra-corp-vst-news-2024_11_18/