Vistra's $845 Million Trading Surge Lands 181st in Daily Volume Ranking Amid Insider Selling Concerns

On May 30, 2025, Vistra (VST) saw a significant surge in trading volume, with a total of $845 million in shares exchanged, marking a 47.91% increase from the previous day. This substantial trading activity placed Vistra at the 181st position in terms of daily trading volume. The stock price of Vistra also rose by 0.53%.

Recent insider selling at Vistra Corp. has raised concerns among investors, particularly given the company's high valuation and mixed financial performance. Executives have sold millions of dollars in shares in May 2025 alone, indicating potential overvaluation and strategic concerns. Key executives, including Kristopher E. Moldovan, Stephanie Zapata Moore, and Carrie Lee Kirby, have offloaded significant amounts of stock. Moldovan sold 45,000 shares worth $7.2 million and exercised options for another 45,000 shares. Moore sold 35,000 shares worth $5.65 million, and Kirby unloaded 108,000 shares worth $16.95 million. The high volume of selling, with 15 sales versus only 2 buys in the past year, suggests a lack of confidence in the stock's future performance. This trend, combined with a $55 billion market cap and a valuation three times higher than GuruFocus's intrinsic value estimate, indicates that insiders may be capitalizing on inflated prices before a potential correction.

Vistra's valuation metrics also paint a troubling picture. The stock trades at a price-to-GF-Value ratio of 3, which is historically overvalued. Its P/E ratio of 25.11 exceeds the industry median of 15.7, raising questions about whether earnings can justify the premium. GuruFocus flags the stock as overvalued, while Spark (TipRanks' AI tool) cites strategic hedging and capital returns as positives but warns of regulatory risks. Moody's downgraded Vistra's credit rating to B2 due to high leverage, although it stabilized its outlook. This mixed messaging underscores the fragility of Vistra's current valuation.

Despite the optimism surrounding its $1.9 billion acquisition of natural gas facilities, Vistra's Q1 2025 results were disappointing. The company reported an EPS of $0.45, missing the forecast of $1.19, and revenue of $3.93 billion, which fell short of estimates by $530 million. Vistra reaffirmed its 2025 EBITDA guidance of $5.5–6.1 billion, but this relies on delayed cash flow benefits from the gas acquisition, projected for late 2025 or early 2026. Investors are pricing in these future gains today, but current earnings are underwhelming. Historical data shows that buying VST on earnings announcement dates and holding for 10 days since 2020 generated a 45.67% return. However, this strategy underperformed the broader market and faced a maximum drawdown of 10.46%, highlighting the risks even in past gains. While such returns might suggest some merit, the recent earnings miss and overvaluation raise concerns about the sustainability of this trend.