Vistra’s $510M Volume Ranks 189th as Traders Bet 66% Bearish on $170–$200 Range Amid Strategic Options Sweeps

Vistra (VST) closed on Sept. 3, 2025, with a 1.24% gain, trading at $186.6 amid a 35.01% drop in daily trading volume to $510 million, ranking 189th in market activity. Unusual options activity highlighted a mixed sentiment, with 66% bearish and 22% bullish positioning among large traders. Notable trades included a $152.5K bullish put sweep at $175 strike and a $119.5K bearish call sweep at the same level, indicating strategic bets on a potential $170–$200 price range over three months.

Options data revealed concentrated activity between $170–$200 strike prices, with significant volume and open interest shifts. For instance, a $94.8K bullish put trade at $175 and a $67.6K bearish call at $195 underscored divergent expectations. Analysts remain cautiously optimistic, with a consensus target price of $224.33, though Goldman Sachs and BMO Capital have maintained neutral or outperform ratings. The stock’s RSI suggests nearing oversold territory, and earnings are anticipated in 64 days.

Vistra Energy, a leading U.S. power producer with 41 GW of generation assets, operates in a competitive energy market. Recent acquisitions, including Energy Harbor and Lotus Partners, expanded its portfolio across nuclear, natural gas, and renewables. Retail operations serve 5 million customers, emphasizing its market presence. Despite bullish options activity, bearish positioning highlights uncertainty, particularly in a sector facing regulatory and transition-related challenges.

Backtest results indicated that large traders targeted a $170–$200 range for VST over three months, with specific trades including: a bullish put sweep at $175 ($40.15 bid, $152.5K total), a bearish call sweep at $175 ($62.9 bid, $119.5K total), and a bearish call at $195 ($16.91 bid, $67.6K total). These trades suggest strategic hedging and directional bets, though outcomes remain contingent on broader market dynamics and company-specific developments.