Vista Energy’s 2026 CapEx Stability and FCF Positivity Clash With Earlier Guidance, Production Forecasts Shift

Date of Call: Feb 26, 2026

Financials Results

• Revenue: $689 million, 46% above the same quarter of the last year and 2% below the previous quarter
• EPS: $0.8 per diluted share
• Operating Margin: Adjusted EBITDA margin was 64%, up 8 percentage points compared to the same quarter of last year

Guidance:

• Total production of 140,000 BOEs per day in 2026.
• CapEx of $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion for 2026.
• Adjusted EBITDA of $1.9 billion for 2026, assuming Brent at $65 per barrel.
• Positive free cash flow generation in 2026, expected to be around $150 million to $200 million.
• Equinor acquisition expected to close around mid-May 2026.

Business Commentary:

Production Growth and Asset Acquisition:

• Vista Energy reported total production of 135,400 BOEs per day in Q4, marking a 59% increase year-over-year and a 7% sequential increase.
• This robust growth was driven by new well tie-ins and strong productivity in regions like Bajada del Palo Oeste, Aguada Federal, and La Amarga Chica, alongside the acquisition of a 50% stake in La Amarga Chica, which expanded their well inventory to over 1,600 wells.

Financial Performance and Cost Efficiency:

• The company reported adjusted EBITDA of $444 million for Q4, a 62% increase interannually, despite a 46% decline in total revenues due to lower oil prices.
• This was attributed to significant well cost savings, a low-cost asset base, and fixed cost dilution from gaining scale, along with accretive M&A activities.

Capital Expenditure and Future Development:

• Vista's capital expenditure for Q4 was $355 million, focused on new well activities, with plans to maintain this level of investment through 2028.
• The investment strategy is supported by a strong well inventory and is aimed at sustaining production growth, with future plans including the acquisition of Equinor's assets to add more than 27,000 net acres and enhance their portfolio.

Strategic Acquisitions and Market Position:

• Vista announced an agreement to acquire Equinor's assets in Vaca Muerta, which are expected to produce around 22,000 barrels of oil per day and generate positive free cash flow.
• This transaction is anticipated to close around mid-May and is expected to enhance Vista's market position and portfolio growth potential.

Sustainability and Cost Reduction Initiatives:

• Vista achieved a 23% reduction in Scope 1 and Scope 2 greenhouse gas emissions intensity, placing them in the first decile globally.
• These efforts were part of their commitment to sustainability and included investments in decarbonization processes and nature-based solutions to develop carbon credits.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• Management described 2025 as "a year of many achievements" and "a transformational year," highlighting "robust production growth," "superior profitable growth," and being "very well placed to deliver on 2026 guidance." Statements include: "2025 was a year of many achievements for Vista," "the acquisition...marked a major milestone," and "we are pretty much on track to deliver our guidance in 2026, a very good start of the year."

Q&A:

• Question from Walter Chiarvesio (Santander Investment Securities Inc.): Regarding the acquisition of Bandurria Sur, what are the next steps in terms of CapEx reallocation and the situation regarding facilities?
  Response: The deal is expected to close in Q2 after antitrust approval. The existing CapEx plan is not affected; the new asset will be self-funded. No facility issues are expected for Bandurria Sur, but new facilities may be needed for Bajo del Toro.

• Question from Bruno Montanari (Morgan Stanley): How should we think about the company using incremental cash generated in 2026 and beyond?
  Response: The main focus is on the current capital plan (4-5 rigs). Most future cash will be allocated via the capital allocation framework: buybacks, dividends, M&A, and debt reduction, with flexibility on the split.

• Question from Alejandro Anibal Demichelis (Jefferies LLC): Where do you see drilling and completion costs now and over the next few quarters, and are similar decreases seen in non-operated acreage?
  Response: D&C cost was $12.1M per well in H2 2025, with further savings expected in 2026 ($11.7M) and 2027 ($11.3M). The company is implementing new cost-reduction projects and sees potential for further declines.

• Question from Andres Cardona (Citigroup Inc.): How could the recent inclusion of upstream business in the regime change the development plan for Bajo del Toro and Aguila Mora?
  Response: The new regulatory scheme is seen as positive, potentially applicable to these blocks, requiring minimum investment and offering benefits like accelerated amortization and lower corporate tax.

• Question from Milene Carvalho (JPMorgan Chase & Co): What efficiency measures supported record low lifting costs in Q4, and what is the trend for coming quarters?
  Response: Savings came from well services and fixed-cost dilution. Lifting cost is guided at $4.4 per BOE for 2026 (2% below 2025), with Q1 expected to be sequentially higher due to timing of costs.

• Question from Bruno Amorim (Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.): Can you provide expectations for the evolution of production, EBITDA, and free cash flow during 2026?
  Response: Production is expected to be flattish/slightly below Q4 in Q1, then grow sequentially in Q2 and Q4 to reach 140k BOEs/day. Adjusted EBITDA is guided at $1.9B, with Q1 flattish/slightly lower and reaching ~$2B annualized in Q4. Free cash flow to be $150M-$200M for the year.

• Question from Daniel Guardiola (Banco BTG Pactual S.A.): Can you provide more color on the type curves and productivity in the Equinor assets and their growth potential?
  Response: Bandurria Sur type curves are similar to Vista's existing assets. Bajo del Toro has significant upside; the company aims to double production from its stake (currently ~2,000 BOEs/day) by 2030.

• Question from Kevin MacCurdy (Pickering Energy Partners Insights): Is Vista seeing an expansion in oilfield service vendors entering Argentina, and could this improve drilling and completion costs?
  Response: Yes, increased service company interest is observed, adding capacity and contributing to cost reductions through competition and innovation.

• Question from Nicolas Barros (BofA Securities): What are the expectations for the new trading arms and how can they unlock value?
  Response: The trading subsidiary (Vista) supports export strategy and provides flexibility for short-term hedging, though margins are not expected to be material to overall results.

• Question from George Gasztowtt (Latin Securities): How are you thinking about capital deployment given higher-than-expected Brent prices?
  Response: Higher prices are welcomed but unlikely to affect short-term plans. The capital allocation framework (debt reduction, buybacks, dividends, M&A) remains the guide for long-term flexibility.

• Question from Joao Pedro Barichello (UBS Investment Bank): Can you provide an update on the financing plan for the Equinor acquisition?
  Response: The initial $387M cash payment will be fully funded by a $300M bridge loan from top-tier banks, keeping the cash balance stable and not affecting the existing CapEx plan.

• Question from Oriana Covault (Balanz Capital Valores S.A.U.): What are the alternatives for shareholder returns in 2026, including a potential buyback extension?
  Response: The company plans to request an extension of the buyback program in the upcoming shareholder meeting, likely larger in size than the 2025 program.

• Question from Francisco Javier Cascaron (DON Capital): What is the maintenance CapEx expectation for the foreseeable future?
  Response: Approximately $850M of CapEx is needed to keep production flat at ~150k BOEs/day, including the Equinor assets.

• Question from Matias Cattaruzzi (Adcap Securities): How would you characterize Vista's relationship with YPF after the recent acquisitions?
  Response: The relationship is described as great, with aligned strategies, technical collaboration, and captured synergies that have improved efficiency and are a factor in confidence for future deals.

Contradiction Point 1

2026 Capital Expenditure Plan and Flexibility

Contradiction on whether the 2026 CapEx plan is fixed or can be adjusted with higher oil prices.

Walter Chiarvesio (Santander Investment Securities Inc.) - Walter Chiarvesio (Santander Investment Securities Inc.)

2025Q4: The existing CapEx plan for 2026 (assuming $65 Brent) is not affected by the new assets. - Miguel Galuccio(CFO)

What are the next steps for CapEx reallocation following the acquisition of Bandurria Sur? - Daniel Guardiola (Banco BTG Pactual S.A.)

2025Q4: The higher Q1 Brent prices are welcome... No short-term changes to the 2026 capital plan are expected. - Miguel Galuccio(CFO)

Contradiction Point 2

2026 Production Guidance Specificity

Contradiction on the preparedness and timing of providing 2026 production and financial guidance.

Bruno Amorim (Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.) - Bruno Amorim (Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.)

2025Q1: The company is reassessing its plan and will provide new guidance in Q2, with a long-term plan to be issued in the second half of the year. - Miguel Galuccio(CFO)

What are the expectations for production, EBITDA, and free cash flow in 2026? - Daniel Guardiola (Banco BTG Pactual S.A.)

2025Q4: Production is expected to be flattish or slightly below Q4 in Q1... Adjusted EBITDA is guided to $1.9 billion for 2026... Free cash flow is expected to be negative in Q1, turn positive in Q2... - Miguel Galuccio(CFO)

Contradiction Point 3

2026 Production Forecast and Target

Contradiction on the expected production level for year-end 2026.

Bruno Amorim (Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.) - Bruno Amorim (Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.)

2025Q1: The company is reassessing its plan and will provide new guidance in Q2, with a long-term plan to be issued in the second half of the year. - Miguel Galuccio(CFO)

What are the expectations for production, EBITDA, and free cash flow in 2026? - Bruno Amorim (Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.)

2025Q4: Production is expected to be flattish or slightly below Q4 in Q1, with a strong pickup to surpass 140,000 BOEs per day in March - Miguel Galuccio(CEO)

Contradiction Point 4

Free Cash Flow (FCF) Expectations

Expectations for 2026 FCF turn positive conflict with prior guidance of neutrality.

Bruno Amorim (Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.) - Bruno Amorim (Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.)

2025Q3: Q4 production is expected to average around 130,000 BOE/day, similar to September levels. - Miguel Galuccio(CEO)

What are the expected production, EBITDA, and free cash flow projections for 2026? - Daniel Guardiola (Banco BTG Pactual S.A.)

2025Q4: Free cash flow is expected to be negative in Q1, turn positive in Q2 and remain so for the rest of the year, with a total of $150-$200 million for the year. - Miguel Galuccio(CFO)

Contradiction Point 5

Impact of New Asset Acquisition on 2025/2026 Operational Plan

Contradiction on whether the new asset acquisition required a revision of the existing operational and capital plan.

Walter Chiarvesio (Santander Investment Securities Inc.) - Walter Chiarvesio (Santander Investment Securities Inc.)

2025Q2: The model assumes continued growth and positive free cash flow outcomes for 2026 and beyond. - Miguel Galuccio(CFO)

What are the next steps for CapEx reallocation following the acquisition of Bandurria Sur? - Bruno Amorim (Goldman Sachs)

2025Q4: The main next step was already cleared... The transaction is expected to close around mid-May. - Miguel Galuccio(CFO)