Visa's Q4 2025 Earnings Call: Contradictions on Consumer Resilience, Agentic Commerce Timelines, and Cross-Border Volume Assumptions

Date of Call: October 28, 2025

Financials Results

• Revenue: $10.7B in Q4, up 12% YOY; full year $40.0B, up 11% YOY
• EPS: $2.98 in Q4, up 10% YOY; full year $11.47, up 14% YOY

Guidance:

• FY2026 adjusted net revenue growth expected in the low double digits (nominal ~flat to FY2025 with ~0.5 point FX tailwind).
• FY2026 adjusted operating expense growth expected in the low double digits, consistent with net revenue growth.
• Nonoperating expense expected to be $125M–$175M for FY2026; Q1 nonoperating expense ~ $15M.
• FY2026 non‑GAAP tax rate expected 18.5%–19%.
• Adjusted EPS growth for FY2026 expected in the low double digits; Q1 EPS growth expected in the low teens.

Business Commentary:

• Revenue and Volume Growth:
• Visa's fiscal fourth quarter net revenue grew 12% year-over-year to $10.7 billion, while full-year net revenue and EPS grew 11% and 14% respectively.
• This growth was supported by total payments volume increasing to $14 trillion, a 8% year-over-year increase in constant dollars.

• The growth was driven by strong performance in both consumer and commercial payments, cross-border transactions, and value-added services.

• Cross-Border Transactions and E-commerce:

• Visa's total cross-border volume excluding intra-Europe transactions grew 11% year-over-year, with e-commerce transactions up 13%.
• This growth was supported by strong commercial volumes and improved travel spending, which reached pre-COVID levels.

• The increase in e-commerce transactions, now representing 40% of total cross-border volume, was a significant driver of growth.

• Value-Added Services and Issuing Solutions:

• Value-added services revenue grew 25% in constant dollars to $3 billion, driven by issuing solutions and advisory services.
• The growth was also influenced by an increase in the number of stablecoin-linked card issuance programs, with spend quadrupling year-over-year.

• Enhancements in token management services and risk management capabilities, such as Visa scam disruption, contributed to the value proposition of these services.

• Agentic Commerce and AI Integration:

• Visa's offerings in agentic commerce, including the Visa Intelligent Commerce platform and Visa Trusted Agent Protocol, are poised to drive future growth.
• The integration of AI and generative AI in Visa's services, such as risk management and merchant monitoring capabilities, has enhanced efficiency and security.
• These advancements are expected to create opportunities for Visa to lead in the emerging agentic commerce sector by providing secure and trusted transactions.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• Management repeatedly described results as "strong" and "better than expected" (Q4 net revenue +12%, EPS +10%). CEO emphasized innovation momentum: "intense focus on innovation is delivering results" and described FY26 opportunities (Olympics, World Cup, stablecoins, agentic commerce). CFO called the business "healthy" with conviction for investments to drive growth.

Q&A:

• Question from Sanjay Sakhrani (Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods): Have you seen consumer trading down/choppiness and how does that factor into your outlook?
  Response: Management said spend patterns remain diversified and stable across categories and spend bands, observed resilient consumer behavior in FY25, and that resilience is the base assumption for FY26 guidance.

• Question from James Faucette (Morgan Stanley): What role will Visa play in agentic commerce and what ramp/milestones should we expect?
  Response: Visa expects to lead standards and product development (Visa Intelligent Commerce, Trusted Agent Protocol), providing open, easy-to-integrate frameworks to enable agentic commerce adoption.

• Question from Jason Kupferberg (Wells Fargo): When will agentic commerce see material volumes and is it additive or substitution to e-commerce?
  Response: Early days; management expects agentic to be largely additive over time by expanding discovery and merchant reach, evolving from discovery to integrated purchases to eventual autonomous buying.

• Question from David Koning (Robert W. Baird): Is the data processing yield increase sustainable and tied to VAS?
  Response: CFO said the DP yield uplift was driven by pricing actions and mix (stronger growth in higher‑yielding cross‑border regions); pricing benefits will persist and mix effects can vary by quarter.

• Question from Darrin Peller (Wolfe Research): How will Visa participate in AI-driven VAS and what does the new VisaNet enable?
  Response: Visa is building AI-enabled, network‑agnostic VAS and has deployed next‑gen VisaNet to accelerate product development, enable faster market rollout and adapt to regional requirements.

• Question from Rayna Kumar (Oppenheimer): Noted slight LATAM deceleration — any color?
  Response: CFO attributed the moderation largely to easing inflation in Argentina; overall LATAM remains a high‑growth region.

• Question from Kenneth Suchoski (Autonomous Research): How does Visa's Trusted Agent Protocol differ from Stripe's and how does tokenization fit?
  Response: Management said tokenization is the essential building block for agentic commerce; the Trusted Agent Protocol is positioned as an open, lightweight base layer designed for broad adoption and easy merchant integration.

• Question from Bryan Keane (Citigroup): Thoughts on holiday sales growth and cross‑border trends (e‑comm vs travel)?
  Response: CFO reiterated strong Q1 guidance (holiday quarter) driven by pricing and resilient consumer; e‑commerce remains strong (~13% growth) and travel is improving, keeping cross‑border above pre‑COVID trends.

• Question from Harshita Rawat (Bernstein): Where are the tangible stablecoin opportunities?
  Response: Visa sees opportunities in issuance, settlement modernization and cross‑border money movement (remittances, B2B, payouts), plus stablecoin‑linked cards and VAS, with focus on emerging markets.

• Question from Andrew Schmidt (KeyBanc): Can you expand on the Asia‑Pac improvement and sustainability?
  Response: CFO said Q4 saw ~2.5 point acceleration driven by timing and modest Mainland China improvement; some normalization expected but AP is directionally on a positive path.

• Question from Timothy Chiodo (UBS): What's driving ~30% RPO growth and the role of value‑in‑kind?
  Response: Management said RPO includes multiple elements, with value‑in‑kind incentives an important lever for client engagement; value‑in‑kind contributes meaningfully though not the majority of VAS revenue.

• Question from Tien‑Tsin Huang (JPMorgan): Are OpEx trends opportunistic or structural and how do incremental margins change?
  Response: CFO said Visa balances investments and efficiency, will grow adjusted operating expense in low double digits to capture large TAMs (AI, VAS, CMS, stablecoins), aligning expense growth with revenue while targeting strong profit growth.

Contradiction Point 1

Consumer Spending Habits and Economic Conditions

It directly impacts expectations regarding consumer behavior and the resilience of spending patterns, which are crucial for Visa's financial outlook.

Have you noticed changes in consumer spending habits due to economic conditions, and how does that affect Visa's outlook? - Sanjay Sakhrani (Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods, Inc., Research Division)

2025Q4: Visa has experienced strong consumer resilience throughout FY 2025, with consistent spending across various bands. Consumer spending has been resilient, and Visa expects this to continue in FY 2026. - Christopher Suh(CFO)

What caused the recent spending acceleration—new run rates, higher prior-year comparisons, or something else? - William Nance (Goldman Sachs)

2025Q1: Strength in U.S. and international markets, along with a strong holiday season and lapping of Reg II. Consumer categories like retail, travel, and entertainment showed the strongest growth. - Christopher Suh(CFO)

Contradiction Point 2

Agentic Commerce Development and Timing

It involves differing expectations regarding the timeline and impact of agentic commerce on Visa's transaction volume, which is crucial for future growth projections.

When can we expect significant volumes from agentic commerce, and is it a substitute or complement to the payment industry? - Jason Kupferberg (Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division)

2025Q4: Agentic commerce will likely evolve similarly to e-commerce, with early use for discovery, then integrated buying, and ultimately, autonomous shopping. It will likely increase transaction volume on Visa, especially with Tokens and VAS offerings. - Ryan McInerney(CEO)

Can you discuss Visa's value-added services initiatives and any shift in focus between security versus processing and gateway? - Andrew Jeffrey (William Blair)

2025Q1: Visa's value-added services continue to be a priority, with no change in emphasis. We're unbundling capabilities like fraud tools and enhancing them to deliver to a broader range of clients, creating new growth opportunities. - Ryan McInerney(CEO)

Contradiction Point 3

Cross-Border Volume Assumptions

It involves differing assumptions regarding cross-border volume growth, which could impact financial projections and investor expectations.

What drove the Asia Pacific improvement, and is it sustainable? - Andrew Schmidt(KEYBANC)

2025Q4: We anticipate cross-border volumes will moderate slightly, but we are confident in our pricing momentum and do not expect a material impact on revenue growth. - Christopher Suh(CFO)

What assumptions have you made for the remainder of the year about cross-border volumes, specifically Canada-US travel impacts? - Sanjay Sakhrani(KBW)

2025Q2: We took the average of March and April as our assumption for the remainder of the fiscal year. - Ryan McInerney(CEO)

Contradiction Point 4

Agentic Commerce Role and Timing

It pertains to Visa's positioning and expectations regarding agentic commerce, which could influence strategic planning and market perception.

What is Visa's role in agentic commerce, and what are the key milestones in its development? - James Faucette(Morgan Stanley)

2025Q4: Agentic commerce will likely evolve similarly to e-commerce, with early use for discovery, then integrated buying, and ultimately, autonomous shopping. - Ryan McInerney(CEO)

Have you noticed any changes in client decision-making processes or backlog, particularly for international clients? - Tien-Tsin Huang(JPMorgan)

2025Q2: We are not seeing significant changes in client partnerships or deals. Our focus is on providing the best support to our clients. - Ryan McInerney(CEO)