Visa's Q3 Earnings Beat Expectations, Despite Market Panic Over Cautious Q4 Guidance

Visa reported Q3 2025 earnings that beat expectations, with revenues of $10.2 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.98. However, Q4 guidance was less than expected, with revenue growth forecast at "high-single-digit to low-double-digit" and EPS growth in the "high single-digit range." Payment volume growth was solid at 8% in constant currency, and consumer spending was called "resilient." The company also highlighted strong growth in its value-added services and initiatives such as Visa Direct and stablecoins. Despite beating expectations, Visa's stock fell 2%-3% in after-hours trading.

Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) reported strong third-quarter (Q3) 2025 earnings, beating analyst expectations with a 14.3% year-over-year (YoY) increase in net revenue to $10.2 billion and an earnings per share (EPS) growth of 23.1% YoY to $2.98 [1]. The company's robust performance was driven by increased payment volumes, processed transactions, and cross-border activity, contributing to a 14.3% YoY increase in net revenue.

Payment volume climbed 8% in constant dollars, with processed transactions up 10% YoY to 65.4 billion. Cross-border volume, excluding intra-Europe, rose 11% in constant dollars, highlighting resilience in international travel and commerce. Commercial payments volume rose 7% YoY, while Visa Direct, its real-time payment platform, soared 25%. Value-added services revenue reached $2.8 billion, a 26% YoY increase, underscoring the strength of Visa’s expanding product suite [1].

Data processing revenues came in at $5.2 billion (up 15%), while international transaction revenue climbed 14% to $3.6 billion. Other revenues surged 32% YoY to $1 billion. However, operating expenses grew 13% YoY to $3.3 billion, driven by higher marketing personnel costs and general and administrative expenses [1].

Despite the strong Q3 results, Visa's stock fell 2%-3% in after-hours trading. The company's forward-looking guidance for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2025 overall was less optimistic, with a forecast of "high-single-digit to low-double-digit" growth in net revenues and EPS in the "high single-digit range" [2]. This guidance was below Wall Street expectations, which could be attributed to challenges such as currency volatility, increased operating expenses, and challenges in U.S. inbound travel.

Visa's continued focus on innovation in AI and stablecoins is expected to shape the future of commerce. The company has expanded its stablecoin capabilities by adding support for four new stablecoins—Global Dollar (USDG), PayPal USD (PYUSD), Euro Coin (EURC), and two unnamed assets—on its settlement platform in July 2025 [3]. This move reflects Visa's strategy to integrate digital assets into its financial infrastructure and strengthen its position in the growing stablecoin market.

Visa's stock remains a favorite among analysts, with the most recent analyst rating on Visa stock being a Buy with a $325.00 price target [4]. The company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.590 per share, payable in September 2025.

References:
[1] https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/visa-q3-earnings-beat-estimates-strong-cross-border-volumes
[2] https://sherwood.news/markets/visa-q3-2025-earnings-sales-estimates/
[3] https://www.ainvest.com/news/visa-expands-stablecoin-support-assets-july-2025-2508/
[4] https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/V/pressreleases/33757364/visa-reports-strong-q3-2025-financial-results/