Virtuals Protocol/Tether Market Overview

• VIRTUALUSDT dropped 9.2% in 24 hours, with a bearish breakdown below 1.1100.
• RSI hit oversold levels near 28, suggesting potential short-term bounce.
• Volume surged to 262,726.6 at 18:00 ET, confirming the downward move.
• Bollinger Bands showed a sharp expansion during the sell-off.
• Fibonacci 61.8% level at 1.1042 now a key support to watch.

Opening Snapshot

Virtuals Protocol/Tether (VIRTUALUSDT) opened at 1.1157 on October 5, 2025, at 12:00 ET - 1, and closed at 1.0848 by the same time on October 6. The 24-hour low was 1.0748, while the high reached 1.1219. Total volume was 1,640,132.6, and notional turnover (volume × price) summed to approximately $1,827,640. The pair is currently in a strong bearish phase, with momentum and volatility aligning with a continuation of the downward trend.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern from 17:00 to 18:00 ET displayed a long bearish real body, consistent with a strong sell-off. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 19:15 ET, confirming the trend reversal. A doji formed at 19:45 ET, suggesting indecision in the short term but failing to reverse the downward momentum. Key support levels are now at 1.1039 (38.2% Fib), 1.1042 (61.8% Fib), and 1.0971 (24-hour low), while immediate resistance appears at 1.0873–1.0891.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below both the 20 and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, assuming a continuation of the trend, price may continue to trade below the 50, 100, and 200-day averages, which are likely in a downward alignment. This would indicate a strong bear market structure.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative during the sell-off, with a bearish crossover forming at 18:00 ET. The histogram showed increasing bearish momentum. RSI has declined into oversold territory (~28), suggesting a potential bounce, but a failure to break above 30 again could indicate further weakness. Divergence between price and RSI was not observed, indicating the move is still in line with momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a sharp expansion during the sell-off, particularly between 18:00 and 20:00 ET. Price is now sitting near the lower band at 1.0844–1.0848, suggesting increased volatility and a potential retest of the band. A close above the middle band would indicate a reversal, but this appears unlikely given the volume and structure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged to 262,726.6 at 18:00 ET, confirming the bearish breakdown. Notional turnover followed in tandem with price action, indicating strong liquidity and participation. There were no notable divergences between volume and price, suggesting the move is structurally sound. The highest turnover occurred during the 18:00–20:00 ET session, which aligns with the strongest bearish impulse.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the key retracement levels are now 1.1042 (61.8%) and 1.1039 (38.2%). On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level is near 1.0950, and the 38.2% level is at 1.1050. A break below 1.0844 would target the next Fibonacci level at 1.0775, which is a critical test of the 24-hour low. The 1.0873–1.0891 range represents a short-term bounce zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves a bearish bias triggered by a bearish engulfing pattern and a RSI below 30, confirming oversold conditions. A stop-loss is placed above the 1.0891–1.0873 range, with a target at 1.0748–1.0775. This setup suggests a high-probability continuation pattern, supported by volume expansion and alignment with key Fibonacci levels. A confirmation of this hypothesis would require a sustained close below 1.0844 within the next 48 hours.