VinFast's Record EV Deliveries in Vietnam: A Green Transition Catalyst or Overhyped Hype?

VinFast Auto Ltd.'s electric vehicle (EV) deliveries in Vietnam have surged to record levels, driven by aggressive expansion and a rapidly electrifying domestic market. Yet, beneath the surface of these impressive numbers lies a complex narrative of financial strain, global market volatility, and questions about long-term sustainability. As the company navigates a competitive EV landscape and a stock price that has lagged despite its growth, investors must weigh whether VinFast's domestic success is a genuine catalyst for Vietnam's green transition-or a fleeting burst of hype.

The Delivery Surge: A Domestic Triumph

VinFast's third-quarter 2025 results underscore its dominance in Vietnam's EV market. The company delivered 38,195 EVs in the quarter, a 74% year-over-year increase, while e-scooter and e-bike deliveries soared 535% to 120,052 units. These figures reflect a strategic pivot toward affordable, mass-market electrification, with Vietnam's government backing the shift through subsidies and infrastructure investments. VinFast's new manufacturing facility in Ha Tinh, Vietnam, now capable of producing 200,000 EVs annually, further cements its domestic leadership.

However, the company's financials tell a different story. Despite the revenue jump to $719 million-a 47% year-over-year increase-VinFast reported a net loss of $953 million for the same period, with a staggering negative gross margin of 56.2%. This highlights a critical challenge: scaling production and market share has come at the expense of profitability, a trend that raises red flags for long-term viability.

Global Expansion and Structural Risks

VinFast's ambitions extend far beyond Vietnam. The company has opened new dealer networks in India, Indonesia, and the U.S., aiming to leverage its domestic success into international markets. A planned 2026 launch of a new vehicle platform and expanded production capacity in India and Indonesia could push annual output to 600,000 vehicles. Analysts project EV deliveries of 173,650 for 2025 and 202,000 for 2026, signaling confidence in the company's growth trajectory.

Yet, these projections hinge on resolving persistent issues. Supply chain disruptions, exacerbated by global geopolitical tensions and semiconductor shortages, remain a wildcard. Moreover, VinFast's reliance on founder-linked financial support-such as loans from its parent company, Vingroup-has drawn scrutiny. While this funding has fueled expansion, it also raises concerns about financial independence and governance risks.

Stock Underperformance and Valuation Dilemmas

VinFast's stock price has struggled to reflect its delivery momentum. Following the Q3 2025 earnings report, shares fell 8.23% in premarket trading amid disappointment over the widening net loss and negative gross margins. The stock currently trades at $3.23, below a fair value estimate of $5.83 proposed by some analysts according to financial analysis. This disconnect between operational growth and market sentiment underscores investor skepticism about the company's ability to turn a profit.

The EV sector's broader volatility compounds these challenges. Rivals like Tesla and BYD have faced similar profitability hurdles, but VinFast's heavy debt load and lack of a clear path to positive cash flow make its situation uniquely precarious. As one analyst noted, "VinFast's story is one of scale over sustainability-for now" according to industry analysis.

A Green Transition or a Hyped Mirage?

VinFast's record deliveries in Vietnam undeniably position it as a key player in the region's green transition. The company's aggressive electrification of public transportation and consumer vehicles aligns with Vietnam's climate goals, and its domestic market share is likely to grow as infrastructure improves. However, the sustainability of this growth depends on resolving profitability issues and reducing reliance on external funding.

For investors, the question is whether VinFast can replicate its domestic success in international markets while tightening its financial margins. The company's 2026 targets and new product launches offer hope, but achieving them will require navigating supply chain bottlenecks and demonstrating a credible path to profitability.

In the end, VinFast's story is a microcosm of the EV industry's broader challenges: balancing rapid growth with fiscal discipline in a volatile global economy. Whether it becomes a green transition catalyst or a cautionary tale of overhyped ambition will depend on its ability to transform delivery numbers into lasting value.