VinFast Auto VFS 2025Q2 Earnings Preview Downside Risk Amid Policy Shifts and High Costs

Forward-Looking Analysis
Analysts project mixed earnings for VinFast Auto in 2025Q2, with downward pressure stemming from its recent decision to discontinue its battery-leasing program, effective March 1, 2025. The move, aimed at simplifying operations and encouraging full vehicle ownership, has raised concerns about higher upfront costs deterring potential buyers. While the company is offering extended free-charging incentives until December 2027, these may not fully offset the increased purchase price. Revenue is expected to grow modestly year-over-year, supported by rising EV sales, but net profit and EPS remain under pressure due to higher vehicle costs and ongoing R&D investments. Gross profit is also expected to remain under strain, with mixed feedback from customers on vehicle performance and value for money.

Historical Performance Review
In 2025Q1, VinFast Auto reported revenue of $16,306.38 billion, but the firm posted a net loss of $17,693.77 billion, with an EPS of -$7.56 thousand. The company also recorded a gross loss of $5,736.49 billion, highlighting the challenges of scaling its EV business while maintaining profitability. Despite high vehicle deliveries, particularly in Vietnam, the firm continues to face financial headwinds from high production costs and competitive pricing.

Additional News
VinFast officially ended its battery-leasing program in early March 2025 after more than three years of implementation. Customers with existing leased batteries may now choose to continue the program or purchase their batteries at a discounted rate. The company cited declining demand for the leasing model and improved battery reliability as reasons for the shift. To encourage full ownership, VinFast extended its free-charging offer until the end of 2027 for vehicles purchased with batteries. The firm also announced plans to expand its EV charging infrastructure for motorcycles, including retail outlets nationwide. In 2024, VinFast delivered 97,399 electric cars and 70,977 electric motorcycles and e-bikes globally. The company aims to double its global vehicle deliveries in 2025 compared to 2024 and remains the top-selling brand in the Vietnamese market.

Summary & Outlook
VinFast Auto’s financial health remains fragile, with 2025Q1 marked by a significant net loss despite strong delivery numbers. While the company is scaling up its EV production and market share in Vietnam, profitability remains elusive due to high costs, reduced incentives, and ongoing R&D expenses. The shift away from battery leasing introduces near-term uncertainty, potentially reducing affordability and deterring new buyers. However, the expansion of free-charging benefits and growing brand presence could support future growth. For 2025Q2, a bearish outlook is warranted due to the risk of lower demand and continued pressure on margins, though long-term prospects remain cautiously optimistic if cost efficiencies and market adoption improve.