VinFast's 2025 Growth Trajectory: Deliveries, Revenue Surge, and Long-Term Viability in a Competitive EV Market

The electric vehicle (EV) market is heating up, and VinFast is turning up the heat with its 2025 performance. The Vietnamese automaker has delivered a stunning 35,837 EVs in Q2 2025, a 172% year-over-year surge, while revenue rocketed 92% to $663 million [1]. But as the numbers pop, so do the red flags. Let’s break down the numbers, the strategy, and whether this high-octane growth can sustain itself in a market where Tesla’s grip is slipping and Chinese rivals are circling.

Financial Firepower and Delivery Surge: A Double-Edged Sword

VinFast’s Q2 2025 results are a masterclass in explosive growth. Deliveries jumped 172% YoY, and revenue nearly doubled, driven by strong B2C demand and a diversified product lineup that includes e-scooters and e-bikes [1]. The company’s first-half 2025 total of 72,167 EVs—up 223% YoY—shows it’s on track to hit its 200,000-unit annual target [1]. But here’s the catch: its gross margin cratered to -41%, dragged down by warranty provisions and deferred revenue [1]. This is a far cry from the -24% margin in Q3 2024 [2], and it raises a critical question: Can VinFast scale without burning through cash?

The answer may lie in its cost-optimization plans and new factories in Vietnam, India, and the U.S. [1]. However, with $3.5 billion in potential funding from its parent company by 2026 [2], investors are betting on management’s ability to turn these facilities into profit centers. For now, the focus is on volume—VinFast is prioritizing market share over margins, a strategy that’s worked for Tesla in the past but comes with risks.

Market Share Domination in Vietnam: A Fortress or a Cracked Foundation?

VinFast isn’t just winning in Vietnam—it’s dominating. In Q1 2025, it captured nearly 40% of the auto market, up from 20% in 2024, with 36,330 EVs delivered [6]. The VF3 and VF5 models alone accounted for 68% of domestic sales [6], a testament to its pricing strategy and government incentives like the 100% registration fee waiver [5]. But this success is a double-edged sword.

Chinese automakers like Geely and Chery are now assembling locally in Vietnam, leveraging similar incentives and undercutting prices [1]. Meanwhile, hybrid vehicles surged 82% YoY in 2025, suggesting consumer demand is still evolving [5]. VinFast’s edge? Its charging infrastructure. With 150,000 ports across Vietnam [1], it’s mirroring Tesla’s Supercharger playbook—a critical differentiator in a market where range anxiety still lingers.

Global Ambitions vs. Local Realities

VinFast’s global expansion is bold but unproven. It’s exporting to 11 countries, with Indonesia and the Philippines as key targets [6], but international markets are a different beast. In the U.S., where it’s building a factory in North Carolina, it faces stiff competition from Tesla, BYD, and legacy automakers.

Consider the broader EV landscape: Tesla’s U.S. market share dropped to 38% in 2024 from 60% in 2020 [4], while BYD leads the global EV pack with 15.4% market share in January 2025 [4]. VinFast’s challenge isn’t just scaling—it’s proving its vehicles can compete on quality, innovation, and brand trust in markets where it’s a relative unknown.

Long-Term Viability: Can the Party Last?

VinFast’s long-term story hinges on three pillars: cost control, international expansion, and ecosystem dominance. The company’s negative margins are a short-term hurdle, but its $3.5 billion lifeline from its parent company buys time to optimize [2]. The real test will be whether it can replicate Vietnam’s success abroad.

In Southeast Asia, VinFast is deploying aggressive tactics: 2,000+ charging ports in Indonesia [3], partnerships for showrooms in the Philippines [3], and a focus on two-wheelers (e-scooters surged 473% YoY in Q1 2025 [4]). These moves position it as a “green mobility” ecosystem player, not just an automaker.

But risks loom. Chinese automakers are price-warriors, and Vietnam’s government incentives could wane. If VinFast can’t improve margins or diversify revenue streams (e.g., charging networks, software), its growth could stall.

The Bottom Line: Buy, Hold, or Watch Closely?

VinFast’s 2025 trajectory is undeniably impressive. It’s a rare EV story where volume growth and market share gains are tangible. However, the path to profitability is murky. Investors should monitor two metrics: gross margin improvement (can it stabilize above -20%?) and international delivery growth (will Q3 2025 show meaningful progress in Indonesia/Philippines?).

For now, VinFast is a high-risk, high-reward bet. If it can execute on its cost-optimization plans and cement its ecosystem lead in Vietnam, it could become a regional powerhouse. But in a global EV market where margins are razor-thin and competition is ruthless, complacency isn’t an option.

Source:
[1] Earnings call transcript: VinFast sees strong Q2 growth [https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-vinfast-sees-strong-q2-growth-stock-rises-93CH-4224482]
[2] VinFast Reports Unaudited Third Quarter 2024 Financial [https://vinfastauto.us/investor-relations/news/vinfast-reports-unaudited-third-quarter-2024-financial-results]
[3] EarningsCall · VFS Q1 2025 [https://earningscall.biz/e/nasdaq/s/vfs/y/2025/q/q1]
[4] Top Selling Electric Vehicles in the World — January 2025 [https://cleantechnica.com/2025/03/03/top-selling-electric-vehicles-in-the-world-january-2025/]
[5] Vietnam Emerges as ASEAN's EV Powerhouse [https://proliance.co.th/vietnam-emerges-as-aseans-ev-powerhouse-market-surges-24-while-regional-sales-decline/]
[6] EarningsCall · VFS Q1 2025 [https://earningscall.biz/e/nasdaq/s/vfs/y/2025/q/q1]