Viking Therapeutics (VKTX): A High-Conviction Biotech Play in the Obesity and Metabolic Disorders Space

The obesity and metabolic disorders market has become one of the most dynamic and lucrative sectors in biotech, driven by the explosive success of GLP-1/GIP agonists like Eli Lilly's Zepbound and Novo Nordisk's Wegovy. Amid this competitive landscape, Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) stands out as a high-conviction play, leveraging a dual-agonist strategy, a robust clinical pipeline, and a strong financial position to position itself as a long-term winner. With its lead candidate, VK2735, advancing through Phase 3 trials and a novel oral formulation nearing data readouts, Viking is poised to capture a significant share of the $73 billion obesity drug market by 2034.

Clinical Progress: Phase 3 Trials and Dual-Formulation Strategy

Viking's VANQUISH Phase 3 program for VK2735 is a cornerstone of its near-term growth. The program includes two pivotal trials:
- VANQUISH-1: Enrolling 4,500 adults with obesity (BMI ≥30) or overweight (BMI ≥27) with comorbidities.
- VANQUISH-2: Enrolling 1,100 adults with type 2 diabetes who are obese or overweight.

Both trials are randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled studies evaluating subcutaneous VK2735 at 7.5 mg, 12.5 mg, and 17.5 mg doses over 78 weeks. The primary endpoint is percent weight loss from baseline, with secondary endpoints measuring ≥5%, ≥10%, ≥15%, and ≥20% reductions. Viking's Phase 2 VENTURE trial already demonstrated up to 14.7% weight loss with VK2735, outperforming many GLP-1 monotherapies.

What sets Viking apart is its dual-formulation strategy. While the subcutaneous version is in Phase 3, the oral tablet formulation of VK2735 completed Phase 2 enrollment in March 2025 (280 patients). Top-line results, expected in H2 2025, could validate the oral formulation's safety and efficacy, offering a non-invasive alternative to injectables. This flexibility could attract patients who prefer oral therapies or seek to transition from injectables after initial weight loss.

Financial Runway: $808M Cash Cushion

As of June 30, 2025, Viking reported $808 million in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments, providing ample runway to fund its Phase 3 trials and other programs. This financial strength is critical in a sector where R&D costs are soaring. For context, competitors like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk face manufacturing bottlenecks and pricing pressures, while smaller biotechs often struggle with capital constraints. Viking's cash position allows it to advance its DACRA program—a dual amylin and calcitonin receptor agonist—toward an IND filing in Q4 2025, further diversifying its pipeline.

Competitive Differentiation: Dual Agonism and Strategic Flexibility

Viking's dual GLP-1/GIP mechanism offers a compelling edge over monotherapies. Preclinical data show that co-activating GLP-1 and GIP receptors enhances weight loss and metabolic control compared to GLP-1 alone. In head-to-head comparisons, VK2735's Phase 2 results rival those of Zepbound and Wegovy, with the added benefit of a monthly dosing regimen (vs. weekly for competitors).

The oral formulation of VK2735 also addresses a key unmet need. While Eli Lilly's orforglipron and Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide are in development, Viking's oral VK2735 could enter the market earlier, leveraging its subcutaneous formulation's proven safety profile. This “transition strategy”—moving patients from injectables to oral maintenance therapy—could improve adherence and long-term outcomes.

Moreover, Viking's DACRA program targets a novel mechanism: dual amylin and calcitonin receptor agonism. Amylin agonists suppress appetite and slow gastric emptying, while calcitonin may enhance fat metabolism. This approach could differentiate Viking from competitors like Novo Nordisk's CagriSema (GLP-1/amylin) and Eli Lilly's retatrutide (GLP-1/GIP/glucagon), offering a unique metabolic profile.

Investment Thesis: A High-Conviction Play

Viking's near-term catalysts—Phase 3 trial updates, oral formulation data, and DACRA's IND filing—position it as a compelling long-term investment. Key risks include trial delays or suboptimal results, but the company's strong cash position and strategic differentiation mitigate these concerns.

For investors seeking exposure to the next phase of metabolic disease innovation, VKTX offers a unique combination of clinical progress, financial strength, and competitive differentiation. While larger players like LLY and NVO dominate headlines, Viking's dual-agonist approach and dual-formulation strategy could carve out a niche in a market increasingly driven by patient preference and combination therapies.

Conclusion: Viking Therapeutics is a high-conviction biotech play for investors with a 3–5 year horizon. With a robust pipeline, strong financials, and a clear path to commercialization, VKTX is well-positioned to deliver outsized returns in the rapidly evolving obesity and metabolic disorders space.