Viking Therapeutics Skyrockets 9.8%—What Hidden Catalyst Ignited This Volatility?

Summary
• Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) surges 9.8% to $35.00, breaking above its 52-week low of $18.92
• Intraday range spans $32.92 to $35.15, with turnover hitting 6.45 million shares
• Sector-wide pharma news highlights Bayer’s 12,000 layoffs and Merck’s $10B Verona buyout

Viking Therapeutics is defying the pharma sector’s mixed signals, surging nearly 10% in a single session. While sector peers grapple with restructuring and M&A activity, VKTX’s sharp rally suggests a unique catalyst. The stock’s price action—climbing from a 52-week low to a 9.8% gain—points to a surge in speculative positioning, with options volume spiking across key strike prices. This volatility demands a closer look at technical triggers and sector dynamics.

Options Volatility and Short-Term Technicals Drive Sharp Rally
VKTX’s 9.8% surge is fueled by a confluence of short-term technical signals and aggressive options positioning. The stock’s price has pierced above its 200-day moving average of $36.13, a critical psychological level, while the 52-week range of $18.92–$81.73 suggests a rebound from oversold territory. Options data reveals a surge in call buying at the $34–$35 strike range, with the VKTX20250815C35 contract seeing $264,156 in turnover and a 100.71% price change. High implied volatility (121.10%) and a leverage ratio of 12.47% indicate aggressive bullish bets. Meanwhile, the stock’s RSI at 49.02 and MACD crossover near zero suggest a potential reversal in a short-term bearish trend.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Calls and Gamma-Driven Bets
• 200-day average: $36.13 (above current price)
• RSI: 49.02 (neutral)
• MACD: 1.12 (bullish crossover)
• Bollinger Bands: $30.41–$34.67 (price near upper band)

Key levels to watch include the 200-day MA at $36.13 and the Bollinger upper band at $34.67. A break above $35.15 (intraday high) could trigger a test of the $36.13 threshold. The VKTX20250815C35 call option stands out with a 121.10% implied volatility, 12.47% leverage ratio, and $264,156 turnover. A 5% upside to $36.75 would yield a payoff of $1.75 per contract. The VKTX20250815C34 call, with 104.91% IV and $40,600 turnover, offers a 122.22% price change potential. Both contracts benefit from high gamma (0.0588–0.0653) and theta decay (0.2262–0.2118), amplifying gains in a bullish breakout. Aggressive bulls should target the $35.50–$36.13 range, with a stop-loss below $32.92 (intraday low).

Backtest Viking Therapeutics Stock Performance
The backtest of VKTX's performance after a 10% intraday surge shows favorable short-to-medium-term gains, with win rates and returns increasing across 3, 10, and 30 days. This suggests the strategy of holding VKTX after a significant intraday increase has a good chance of yielding positive returns over various time frames.

Act Now: Capitalize on Gamma-Driven Volatility Before Expiry
VKTX’s 9.8% rally is a short-term gamma-driven surge, fueled by call options with high leverage and liquidity. The stock’s technicals suggest a potential test of the $36.13 200-day MA, with the sector leader Pfizer (PFE) up 1.23% as a broader pharma proxy. Investors should prioritize the VKTX20250815C35 and VKTX20250815C34 calls for a 5–7% upside target. Watch for a breakdown below $32.92 or a breakout above $35.15 to confirm the trade’s validity. Immediate action is critical, as options expiry looms on August 15.