Viking Therapeutics: Riding the Wave of Metabolic Innovation with VK2735 and VK2809

As Viking Therapeutics (NASDAQ: VKTX) prepares to report its Q2 2025 financial results on July 23, investors are laser-focused on the company's progress in its clinical pipeline. The biotech's dual investigational therapies, VK2735 and VK2809, are advancing through pivotal trials, with data readouts and regulatory milestones poised to reshape its valuation. For a company betting its future on metabolic and rare disease therapies, this quarter could be a turning point.

The VK2735 Breakthrough: Obesity's Next Frontier

At the heart of Viking's pipeline is VK2735, a dual GLP-1/GIP agonist designed to tackle obesity and related comorbidities. The Phase 3 VANQUISH program—comprising trials VANQUISH-1 (4,500 participants) and VANQUISH-2 (1,100 participants)—is the most critical near-term catalyst. These trials, initiated in early 2025, evaluate once-weekly subcutaneous injections over 78 weeks, with the primary endpoint of achieving statistically significant weight loss versus placebo. Secondary endpoints include the percentage of patients losing ≥5%, ≥10%, or ≥15% of their baseline weight.

Early data from Phase 2 studies are promising. In 2024, the VENTURE trial showed VK2735 reduced body weight by up to 14.7% after 13 weeks, with 70% of that loss maintained post-dosing. Safety profiles were favorable, with mild gastrointestinal side effects (e.g., nausea) subsiding after the first week.

But the real game-changer could be the oral formulation of VK2735, which completed enrollment in Q2 2025. The VENTURE-Oral trial—testing once-daily tablets in 280 patients—aims to replicate these results without injections. If successful, this could broaden VK2735's appeal, as many patients prefer oral therapies. Phase 1 data hinted at 8.2% weight loss at 28 days, with 100% of treated subjects achieving ≥5% loss versus 0% in placebo. Results are expected late 2025.

VK2809: Targeting NASH and Lipid Disorders

While VK2735 dominates near-term catalysts, VK2809—a thyroid hormone receptor beta agonist—holds long-term promise. In Phase 2b trials for non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), VK2809 reduced liver fat by 37%–55% versus placebo and improved fibrosis markers. For patients with elevated LDL cholesterol, Phase 2a data showed significant LDL reductions. These results position VK2809 as a potential best-in-class therapy in a $30B+ NASH market.

Though no Q2 2025 updates were mentioned for VK2809, its robust Phase 2 data and lack of major competitors in NASH fibrosis make it a high-value asset. Regulatory pathways here are still evolving, but Viking's focus on MASH (moderate to severe NASH) and fibrosis endpoints could accelerate approval timelines.

Financial Fortitude and Risks

Viking's $903M cash balance (as of 2024) provides a 3–4-year runway, a critical cushion as it scales manufacturing for potential approvals. Q4 2024 net losses ($0.32/share) reflect aggressive R&D spending ($101.6M in 2024), but this is a calculated bet on clinical success.

Risks remain:
- Competitor dominance: Semaglutide (Wegovy/Ozempic) and tirzepatide (Mounjaro) already claim significant market share in obesity. VK2735 must prove non-inferiority or superior efficacy/safety.
- Regulatory hurdles: FDA scrutiny of cardiovascular safety in obesity drugs could delay approvals.
- Oral formulation execution: Manufacturing complexities or lower efficacy could limit VK2735's upside.

Investment Thesis: High Risk, High Reward

Viking's stock is a speculative play on metabolic drug success. Bulls argue that VK2735's dual agonist mechanism and oral form could carve a niche in a $12B obesity market, while VK2809's NASH data positions it as a rare-disease winner. Analysts' $86 price target (2024 estimates) implies 200% upside from current levels, but this hinges on clinical wins.

Buy if:
- Phase 3 VK2735 data meets or exceeds placebo by ≥10% weight loss.
- Oral formulation results mirror subcutaneous efficacy.

Avoid if:
- Safety concerns emerge (e.g., pancreatitis, cardiovascular risks).
- VK2809's NASH data falters in later trials.

Conclusion

Viking Therapeutics is at an inflection point. The Q2 report will provide a financial snapshot, but the real spotlight falls on 2025's clinical readouts. Succeed here, and the company's valuation could soar; stumble, and skepticism will reign. For investors with a tolerance for volatility, Viking offers a chance to profit from two therapies targeting multibillion-dollar markets. The coming months will reveal whether this biotech can transition from hopeful innovator to market leader.

Stay tuned for the July 23 earnings call—the countdown begins.