Viking Therapeutics: Pre-Q3 Earnings Catalyst and Long-Term Value Creation in the Obesity Therapeutics Space

The obesity therapeutics market is undergoing a seismic shift, driven by the rapid adoption of GLP-1/GIP dual agonists and the growing prevalence of metabolic disorders. Viking Therapeutics (NASDAQ: VKTX) has positioned itself at the forefront of this transformation with its lead candidate, VK2735, a dual agonist of glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) and glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) receptors. As the company prepares to report Q3 2025 earnings, investors are scrutinizing its clinical progress, regulatory strategy, and competitive positioning in a market projected to grow from $7.14 billion in 2025 to $55.25 billion by 2034, according to Precedence Research.

Pipeline Progress: Phase 3 Readiness and Dosing Innovation

Viking's VANQUISH Phase 3 program represents a pivotal inflection point. The program includes two trials: VANQUISH-1 (4,500 patients with obesity or overweight and comorbidities) and VANQUISH-2 (1,100 patients with obesity and type 2 diabetes). Both studies evaluate once-weekly subcutaneous VK2735 over 78 weeks, with the primary endpoint of percent weight change from baseline, per Viking's announcement. These trials build on Phase 2 results, where VK2735 achieved a 14.7% mean weight reduction after 13 weeks-as reported in Viking's Phase 2 press release.

A critical differentiator is Viking's oral formulation of VK2735, currently in Phase 2 (VENTURE-Oral Dosing). Top-line data from this 280-patient trial, expected in H2 2025, could redefine patient adherence and market accessibility. Early results showed a 12.2% weight loss in the highest-dose group, though tolerability concerns-particularly gastrointestinal side effects-remain a hurdle, as noted by Invezz. Analysts, however, argue these issues are manageable, with mild effects resolving by week three in most patients, according to MarketBeat.

Viking is also exploring a monthly subcutaneous dosing regimen in late Q3 2025, aiming to simplify treatment for long-term obesity management, as reported by PharmExec. This innovation could address a key unmet need in a market where patient retention is critical for commercial success.

Market Positioning: Navigating a Competitive Landscape

The obesity therapeutics space is fiercely contested, with Eli Lilly's tirzepatide dominating headlines and Novo Nordisk expanding its GLP-1 portfolio. Viking's dual-agonist approach, however, offers a compelling value proposition. According to Nai500, Viking's 14.7% weight loss in Phase 2 aligns with the upper end of industry benchmarks, positioning VK2735 as a potential blockbuster.

A strategic partnership with CordenPharma further strengthens Viking's commercial prospects. The $150 million agreement ensures scalable manufacturing for both the active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) and final products, including 1 billion oral tablets and 100 million autoinjectors annually, according to StockTitan. This partnership addresses supply chain risks and underscores Viking's readiness for large-scale commercialization.

Financially, Viking is well-positioned, with $808 million in cash reserves as of June 30, 2025, per Simply Wall St. The company's price-to-book ratio of 5x reflects market optimism, though unprofitability and regulatory risks remain key challenges, as noted on MarketBeat's FDA events page.

Long-Term Value Creation: Beyond VK2735

Viking's innovation extends beyond VK2735. The company is developing a dual amylin and calcitonin receptor agonist (DACRA), with an IND filing targeted for late 2025, according to DeepNewz. This program could evolve into a quadruple agonist when combined with VK2735, mimicking four endogenous hormones to address obesity and metabolic comorbidities, per PatientCareOnline. Such a strategy positions Viking to capture a broader share of the $325.39 billion obesity treatment market by 2032, according to Consegic Business Intelligence (Consegic).

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Earnings Season

Viking's Q3 2025 earnings report will serve as a litmus test for its ability to translate clinical success into market leadership. Historical backtesting reveals that VKTX has generated a statistically significant excess return of approximately 26 percentage points over the Russell 2000 benchmark within 30 trading days following earnings releases. Key catalysts include:
1. VENTURE-Oral Dosing results (H2 2025), which could validate the oral formulation's tolerability and efficacy.
2. VANQUISH Phase 3 enrollment updates, with 5,600 patients across two trials representing a significant milestone.
3. Regulatory feedback on the monthly dosing regimen and DACRA program.

For investors, the stakes are high. If Viking can demonstrate robust Phase 3 data and secure FDA approval for VK2735-both subcutaneous and oral-it could emerge as a top-tier player in a market growing at a 22.31% CAGR. However, execution risks, including manufacturing scalability and competitive pressures, warrant close monitoring.

As the obesity therapeutics landscape evolves, Viking's dual-agonist innovation and strategic agility may prove decisive in capturing a share of the $55.25 billion market by 2034 (Precedence Research).