Viking Therapeutics and the Oral Obesity Drug Race: A Strategic Play in a $150B Market

The obesity drug market is undergoing a seismic shift, driven by the rapid adoption of GLP-1/GIP dual agonists and the urgent demand for scalable, patient-friendly solutions. At the forefront of this transformation is Viking Therapeutics (NASDAQ: VKTX), a biotech firm leveraging its dual-pathway mechanism and strategic partnerships to position itself as a formidable contender in a market projected to reach $150 billion by 2030. With its lead candidate, VK2735, advancing through Phase 3 trials and a robust Phase 2 oral formulation showing promise, Viking is uniquely poised to capitalize on gaps left by industry giants like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.

A Dual-Pathway Differentiator

VK2735, Viking's dual GLP-1/GIP agonist, has demonstrated best-in-class weight loss potential in early trials. The subcutaneous formulation achieved a 14.7% reduction in body weight in Phase 2 (VENTURE study), while the oral version delivered 12.2% weight loss in a 13-week Phase 2 trial (VENTURE-Oral). These results, combined with a favorable safety profile—most adverse events were mild to moderate—position VK2735 as a versatile treatment option. The dual agonist mechanism, which activates both GLP-1 and GIP receptors, offers enhanced metabolic regulation compared to single-pathway competitors like semaglutide or tirzepatide.

Viking's dual delivery formats (oral and injectable) further differentiate it. The oral formulation, in particular, addresses a critical unmet need: patient adherence. While injectables remain the standard, they often face resistance due to discomfort and complexity. Viking's oral tablet could attract a broader patient base, particularly those seeking non-invasive alternatives. Analysts project that the oral formulation could replicate Phase 1 results, with placebo-adjusted weight loss of ~7% at the highest dose, a figure that would rival Eli Lilly's underperforming orforglipron and Novo Nordisk's supply-constrained Wegovy.

Strategic Manufacturing and Financial Strength

Viking's $150 million partnership with CordenPharma is a masterstroke in securing supply chain stability. The agreement ensures 1 billion oral tablets and 100 million autoinjectors annually, addressing scalability concerns that have plagued larger competitors. This partnership, coupled with Viking's $808 million cash reserves (as of Q2 2025), provides a financial runway to fund Phase 3 trials and commercialization without dilution. By prepaying for manufacturing capacity, Viking locks in supply continuity, a critical advantage as the market grapples with production bottlenecks.

Navigating a Competitive Landscape

The obesity drug market is crowded but fragmented. Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly dominate with Wegovy and Mounjaro, but both face patent cliffs, adverse event concerns, and supply shortages. Meanwhile, Pfizer and Roche have exited or scaled back their GLP-1 programs, creating a vacuum Viking could fill. Analysts from William Blair and Morgan Stanley highlight Viking's IP strength and flexible delivery options as key acquisition targets for pharma giants seeking to bolster their pipelines.

The Phase 3 VANQUISH program (VANQUISH-1 and VANQUISH-2) will be pivotal. These trials, enrolling 5,600 patients, aim to confirm VK2735's efficacy in obesity and type 2 diabetes. Success would validate Viking's dual agonist as a first-line treatment, with the potential to capture a significant share of the $150B market.

Investment Thesis: Timing the Readout

Viking's Q3 2025 Phase 2 oral readout is a critical inflection point. If the data replicate earlier results, the stock could see a sharp re-rating. Analysts project a $45–$55 price target based on a 20% weight loss margin and a 10x revenue multiple, assuming $1.5 billion in peak sales. The company's $3.7 billion market cap (as of August 2025) offers a compelling risk-reward profile, particularly given its low overhead (36 employees) and high cash reserves.

Risks and Considerations

While Viking's prospects are strong, risks remain. Clinical trial variability could impact Phase 3 outcomes, and regulatory hurdles are inherent in obesity drug approvals. Additionally, the oral formulation's long-term efficacy and patient adherence rates need real-world validation. However, Viking's dual delivery model and robust IP portfolio mitigate many of these risks.

Conclusion: A Strategic Bet on Innovation

Viking Therapeutics is not just a biotech play—it's a strategic bet on the future of obesity care. By combining a differentiated dual agonist, scalable manufacturing, and flexible delivery options, Viking is positioned to disrupt a market ripe for innovation. For investors, the upcoming Phase 2 readout and Phase 3 enrollment progress represent a high-conviction opportunity. In a sector where supply chain stability and clinical differentiation are paramount, Viking's playbook is both pragmatic and visionary.

Investment Recommendation: Buy Viking Therapeutics ahead of the Q3 2025 Phase 2 oral readout, with a long-term hold for potential partnership or commercialization milestones.