Vietnam's trade surplus with the U.S. rises to $62 billion in H1 2025: Nikkei

Vietnam's trade surplus with the U.S. rises to $62 billion in H1 2025: Nikkei

Vietnam's trade surplus narrowed to USD 2.83 billion in June 2025, down from USD 3.2 billion in the same month of 2024, as exports rose less than imports, marking the third straight month of surplus. Exports grew by 16.3% year-over-year (yoy) to USD 39.49 billion, while imports surged 20.2% to USD 36.66 billion [1].

This development comes amidst significant changes in Vietnam's trade dynamics. The country has been experiencing a surge in foreign investor interest following the announcement of a preliminary trade deal with the U.S. This agreement, although lacking in detail, appears to be more favorable than those Washington has made with most of Vietnam’s South-east Asian peers. JPMorgan Chase recently upgraded its rating for Vietnam to "overweight" within ASEAN, reflecting a bullish outlook on the nation’s equity market [2].

The U.S. 20% tariff on domestically produced goods is expected to help Vietnam’s exports remain competitive against those from China, which face a 55% tariff, and other regional competitors averaging 15 to 18% duties. This favorable tariff rate is a significant factor driving the return of foreign investors to Vietnam's stock market. The country's stock market has seen renewed activity, with the key index rising by 4% since July 2 and 14% year-to-date [2].

Vietnam's economic expansion accelerated to nearly 8% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, driven largely by robust public spending and investment disbursement. Infrastructure spending surged 40% in the first half of this year, fueled by legal reforms and streamlined disbursement procedures [2].

Despite external challenges, Vietnam is preparing stricter penalties to combat trade fraud and illegal transshipment, as part of efforts to meet commitments it had made to Washington. Analysts predict that a possible FTSE reclassification of Vietnam from frontier to emerging market this September could result in additional tailwinds for foreign inflows [2].

References:
[1] https://www.tradingview.com/news/te_news:468080:0-vietnam-trade-surplus-narrows-in-june/
[2] https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/international/asean/vietnam-stocks-pop-foreign-investors-return-sweetened-us-trade-terms-analysts