Vietnam Opens Skies to Chinese Jets: COMAC's Big Break?

Ladies and gentlemen, buckle up! Vietnam is about to make a monumental move in the aviation industry. The Civil Aviation Authority of Vietnam (CAAV) is proposing the approval of Chinese-made COMAC jets, and this could be a game-changer for the global aviation market. Let's dive into the details and see why this is a big deal!

Why COMAC Jets Matter

1. Increased Competition: COMAC's entry into the market provides airlines with an additional option for narrow-body and wide-body aircraft. This increased competition could lead to more competitive pricing and better terms for airlines, as manufacturers vie for market share. For instance, COMAC has already delivered 12 C919 narrowbodies in 2024 and plans to deliver 50 in 2025, indicating a rapid ramp-up in production.

2. Regional Expansion: COMAC's success in Vietnam could serve as a stepping stone for further expansion into other Southeast Asian markets. This regional expansion could erode the market share of Airbus and Boeing in these areas. COMAC's C919 has a seating capacity of 158-192, making it a direct competitor to the Boeing 737 and Airbus A321.

3. Geopolitical Considerations: Countries like Russia, which face increasing isolation from Western manufacturers due to geopolitical tensions, could become significant buyers for COMAC aircraft. This could further reduce the market share of Airbus and Boeing in these regions.

4. Production Capacity: COMAC plans to increase its annual production capacity to 150 aircraft in the next five years. This increased production capacity could help COMAC meet more of its domestic requirements and produce surplus for export, further challenging Airbus and Boeing's dominance.

5. Market Share: COMAC is likely to capture around 25% of the new single-aisle aircraft market in China by 2042, according to aviation analytics firm Cirium. This could significantly reduce the market share of Airbus and Boeing in China, which is one of the world's largest airline markets.

6. Technological Advancements: COMAC's aircraft, such as the C919, are designed to compete with the latest models from Airbus and Boeing. For example, the C919 has a seating capacity of 158-192, making it a direct competitor to the Boeing 737 and Airbus A321. This technological competition could drive innovation and improvement in aircraft design and efficiency.

Regulatory and Safety Standards

To gain approval in Vietnam, COMAC must meet several regulatory and safety standards as assessed by Vietnam’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAAV). These standards include:

1. Aircraft Design and Safety Standards: CAAV has reviewed COMAC’s aircraft design, safety standards, manufacturing processes, testing protocols, and maintenance procedures. This review was conducted during a visit to COMAC’s production facilities in Shanghai from January 15 to January 24, 2025. The CAAV delegation met with the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) to ensure compliance with these standards.

2. Type Certification (TC) and Production Certification: COMAC has received both Type Certification (TC) and Production Certification from China’s aviation authority for the ARJ21-700 (C909). This certification is a prerequisite for the aircraft to be considered for operation in Vietnam.

3. Operational Reliability: The C909 fleet has demonstrated high operational reliability, with an average daily flight hours per aircraft of 5.2 hours and a dispatch reliability of over 99%. The fleet has accumulated over 550,000 flight hours, conducted more than 330,000 takeoffs and landings, and transported over 19 million passengers worldwide without any major accidents or serious safety incidents.

4. Technical-Related Flight Disruptions: The C909 has shown a low rate of technical-related flight disruptions, with 3.77 disruptions per 1,000 flights and 0.97 flight cancellations due to technical reasons per 1,000 flights.

5. Regulatory Compliance: CAAV has proposed modifications to aviation business regulations in Vietnam, including updating the Civil Aviation Safety Code to recognize China’s airworthiness certification and revising decrees on conditional business sectors to allow for the import of COMAC aircraft. Once these regulatory changes are approved, CAAV will formally issue a Type Certificate (TC) recognition for the C909 aircraft in Vietnam.

Comparing these standards to international standards set by the FAA (US) and EASA (EU), CAAV suggested recognizing China’s aircraft design and manufacturing certifications to facilitate aircraft imports. This recognition would align Vietnam’s regulatory framework with international standards, ensuring that COMAC’s aircraft meet the necessary safety and performance criteria for operation in Vietnam.

The Big Picture

The approval of COMAC jets in Vietnam is not just a local story; it's a global one. This move could signal a shift in the aviation industry, challenging the dominance of Airbus and Boeing. COMAC's success in Vietnam could pave the way for further expansion into other markets, particularly in Southeast Asia and beyond.

Conclusion

Ladies and gentlemen, this is a big deal! The approval of COMAC jets in Vietnam could reshape the global aviation market. It's a story of increased competition, regional expansion, and technological advancements. So, buckle up and get ready for the next big thing in aviation!