Vietnam estimates Jan.-Feb. CPI rises about 3% y/y: Govi

Vietnam estimates Jan.-Feb. CPI rises about 3% y/y: Govi

Vietnam’s Annual Inflation Rate Slows to 2.53% in January 2026

Vietnam’s annual inflation rate decelerated to 2.53% in January 2026, marking the lowest level since July 2023 and a decline from 3.48% in December 2025, according to the General Statistics Office of Vietnam. This easing reflects moderated price growth across key categories, including food and foodstuff services (3.64% annual growth, down from 4.20% in December), beverages and cigarettes (1.95%, down from 2.05%), and household goods (1.71%, down from 1.77%).

Deflationary pressures persisted in transport (-3.76% annual decline) and information and communication (-0.28%), while housing, electricity, and construction materials saw increased inflation (5.60% annual growth). On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.05% in January, following a 0.19% increase in December.

The core inflation rate, excluding volatile items, eased to 3.19% in January from 3.27% in December, indicating stabilizing underlying price trends. Analysts project Vietnam’s inflation rate to further decline to 2.10% by the end of the first quarter of 2026, with long-term forecasts pointing to an average of 2.70% in 2027 and 2.40% in 2028.

Historically, Vietnam’s inflation has averaged 5.58% annually since 1996, with peaks like the 28.24% high in August 2008 and troughs such as the -2.60% low in July 2000. The current slowdown aligns with broader economic adjustments, including reduced food costs (-1.22% annual change in January) and tempered demand in non-essential sectors.

While the government has not explicitly outlined a 3% year-over-year target for January-February 2026, the trajectory of inflation and sub-component trends suggest continued moderation in 2026, supported by stable monetary policy and controlled supply-side pressures. Investors should monitor upcoming CPI releases and policy updates from the State Bank of Vietnam for further insights.

[^NUMBER]: Citations refer to source 3 (Trading Economics).