Victory Metals: A Strategic Play in the Critical Minerals Supply Chain Race

The global rush to secure critical minerals for defense and electric vehicle (EV) production has thrust Victory Metals (VTM) into the spotlight. With its North Stanmore project in Western Australia positioned to supply rare earth oxides and gallium oxide—critical for semiconductors, radar systems, and EV batteries—Victory's recent strides toward SAM.gov approval and U.S. government backing signal a pivotal moment for investors. Here's why VTM could be a near-term buy.

The SAM.gov Gateway: Unlocking Federal Contracts

SAM.gov is the U.S. government's central registry for contractors, a prerequisite for bidding on federal projects. For Victory Metals, securing SAM approval is a binary catalyst that could unlock multi-year defense and EV-related contracts. While the company's formal approval date remains undisclosed, its alignment with U.S. critical minerals mandates and EXIM Bank financing suggest it is nearing the finish line.

The U.S. Export-Import Bank's $292M Letter of Interest (LOI) for North Stanmore, issued under the Defense Production Act, underscores its strategic importance. This financing, paired with Saudi Arabia's $10M investment (linked to Vision 2030), signals geopolitical and financial support, reducing execution risk. Once SAM-approved, Victory can formalize supply agreements with defense OEMs and EV manufacturers, turning its 247.5M tonnes of rare earth reserves and 4,788 tonnes of gallium oxide into revenue.

Strategic Positioning: Minerals at the Heart of U.S. Priorities

Victory's resource mix directly addresses two pillars of U.S. critical minerals strategy:
1. Defense Needs: Rare earth oxides are vital for F-35 fighter jets (requiring ~200kg/aircraft), precision guidance systems, and radar tech. Gallium oxide's role in semiconductors positions it for advanced military electronics.
2. EV and Renewable Growth: Neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) in rare earth oxides are used in EV motors and wind turbine magnets. Victory's planned production of 5,000–10,000 tonnes/year of mixed rare earth carbonate (MREC) could satisfy ~5–10% of U.S. annual demand, reducing reliance on Chinese supplies.

The company's gallium recovery process, at below $20/kg, is a cost advantage over Chinese competitors, making it a compelling partner for U.S. defense and tech firms.

Catalyst Timing: SAM Approval Could Trigger a Breakout

SAM.gov registration typically takes 3–4 weeks if submitted flawlessly, but delays are common. Victory's clean due diligence (backed by EXIM and Saudi partners) suggests approval could come by late Q3 2025. Key triggers to watch:
- Announcement of SAM Registration: A press release confirming eligibility will remove uncertainty.
- Pre-Feasibility Study Completion: Due by mid-2026, this will validate metallurgical processes and economic viability, attracting project financing.
- First U.S. Defense Contract Win: A deal with the DoD or OEMs would validate market demand.

Technical Momentum: A Setup for a Breakout

Technically, VTM has been consolidating in a symmetrical triangle pattern since April 2025, with support at $0.85 and resistance at $1.20. A SAM approval announcement could break resistance, targeting the $1.50–$1.80 zone, where a 50% retracement of its 2023–2024 decline lies.

Key indicators:
- RSI: Below 50, suggesting oversold conditions.
- Volume: Increasing on dips, signaling accumulation.
- Relative Strength vs. Index: Outperforming the S&P 500 by 15% YTD, despite broader market volatility.

Investment Thesis: Buy on Dips, Target $1.80

Victory Metals is a strategic play on U.S. supply chain resilience. With SAM approval imminent and EXIM financing secured, the company is primed to capitalize on a $20B+ annual market for critical minerals. Investors should:
1. Enter at $0.95–$1.00: A pullback to the 50-day MA offers a high-probability entry.
2. Set a $1.80 Target: Reflecting 85% upside and valuing the company at ~$1.2B, in line with peers like MP Materials.
3. Exit if SAM Approval Fails: A delay beyond Q4 2025 would warrant caution.

Risks

• SAM Delays: Regulatory hurdles or validation failures could push approval to 2026.
• Commodity Price Volatility: Rare earth prices are tied to EV demand and geopolitical tensions.
• Project Costs: Overruns in the pre-feasibility phase could pressure margins.

Conclusion

Victory Metals is a rare pure-play on the U.S. critical minerals renaissance. With SAM approval as the final hurdle and a project that directly supports defense and EV mandates, VTM offers asymmetric upside. For investors willing to bet on supply chain resilience, now is the time to position ahead of the catalyst.

Actionable Takeaway: Buy VTM at $0.95–$1.00, target $1.80 by early 2026. Monitor SAM registration news flow and pre-feasibility study updates closely.