Viction/Tether (VICUSDT) Market Overview

• Price fell sharply overnight, breaking below key support at 0.2040, with heavy volume.
• RSI and MACD show bearish momentum, suggesting further downside risk ahead.
• Volatility expanded during the early hours, with a key 0.2020–0.2025 consolidation area forming.
• Bollinger Bands indicate a low-risk pullback near 0.2015, but bearish bias remains intact.
• A 0.1980 Fibonacci level may act as a critical test for bearish continuation or reversal.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25, Viction/Tether (VICUSDT) opened at 0.2121 and closed at 0.2017 after a 24-hour period marked by heavy bear pressure. The 15-minute OHLCV data shows a low of 0.1988 and a high of 0.2122, with total volume of 203849.53 and notional turnover of $41,092,106. Price action shows a distinct bearish bias, with a strong breakdown after 22:00 ET on the 24th.

Structure & Formations

The price action reveals a clear breakdown pattern following a failed attempt to retest the 0.2100–0.2115 range. A significant bearish engulfing pattern formed around 03:30 ET on the 25th, confirming the shift in sentiment. A potential support cluster has emerged between 0.2015 and 0.2020, with a bear trap forming as buyers have yet to show strength above 0.2050.

Moving Averages

Short-term averages (20/50-period) on the 15-minute chart show a sharp downward crossover, reinforcing bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the price remains well below all key moving averages (50, 100, and 200-period), indicating a continuation of the long-term downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The RSI has moved into oversold territory near 25, but this does not yet signal a reversal, as volume remains weak. The MACD is deeply bearish with a negative histogram that has been expanding, suggesting sustained selling pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly overnight, with the Bollinger Band width widening. Price has found a short-term floor near the lower band at 0.2015, but the bearish trend continues to dominate. A break below 0.2000 would confirm a deeper decline into the 0.1980–0.1990 zone.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the early hours of the 25th, particularly between 03:00 and 04:45 ET, aligning with a significant price drop. Notional turnover exceeded $10 million in the 03:30–04:30 ET block, suggesting aggressive shorting or liquidation of long positions. However, recent volume has moderated, and any rally above 0.2035 with above-average volume could signal a potential reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the 0.2105–0.2020 swing suggest 0.2035 (38.2%) and 0.2047 (61.8%) as critical psychological levels. A break below 0.2015 would trigger a retest of the 0.1980 (61.8%) level from the larger 0.2122–0.1988 move.

Viction/Tether appears to be in a strong bearish phase, with technical indicators and price action aligning for further downside. A break below 0.2015 could open the door to the 0.1980 level, but short-term buyers may defend the 0.2015–0.2025 range. Investors should remain cautious as volatility remains elevated, and any rally must be confirmed with follow-through volume to avoid a trap.

Backtest Hypothesis
The bearish breakdown and engulfing pattern suggest a potential short entry at 0.2020 with a stop above 0.2040 and a target at 0.1990–0.1980. A backtesting strategy could involve entering short positions on a close below 0.2015 with a stop above the recent high of 0.2043. Given the strength of the downtrend, this setup may offer high-probability short-term bearish trades, provided volume confirms the breakdown.