Viction/Tether (VICUSDT) Market Overview: 24-Hour Analysis (12:00 ET–1 to 12:00 ET)

• VICUSDT traded in a tight range during early hours before breaking lower, closing near 0.1508 at 12:00 ET.
• A strong bearish bias emerged after a key breakdown below 0.1530 and into the 0.1500 level.
• Volatility spiked mid-day following a sharp selloff from 0.1642 to 0.1472, with increased notional turnover.
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish momentum, with price showing no signs of reversing into overbought territory.
• A key support at 0.1490 appears in play, with a potential test of psychological 0.1470 if bearish continuation persists.

Viction/Tether (VICUSDT) opened at 0.1632 on 2025-10-21 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.1642, and a low of 0.1472 before closing at 0.1508 on 2025-10-22 12:00 ET. The pair traded 10,506,719.46 in volume, with notional turnover totaling $1,604,311.73 over the 24-hour window. The price action was marked by a strong bearish breakdown from key resistance levels.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a bearish exhaustion phase as VICUSDT failed to reclaim the 0.1530–0.1535 range following several attempts to do so. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 2025-10-22 07:15 ET, signaling a potential reversal lower. Key support levels emerged at 0.1500 and 0.1490, both showing signs of consolidation. A breakdown below 0.1490 could expose the 0.1470–0.1480 range as the next bearish target.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs crossed below key support at 0.1530, confirming a bearish trend continuation. On the daily scale, the 50 and 200-period SMAs appear to be forming a bearish crossover, reinforcing the expectation of further downward momentum. Traders watching for a crossover back above the 50 SMA may look to key resistance at 0.1520–0.1535 for potential reversal signals.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained below its signal line for most of the 24-hour period, indicating bearish momentum. RSI readings consistently stayed below 40, signaling weak buying pressure and a high probability of further bearish continuation. While RSI briefly approached oversold territory (30), it failed to produce a reversal, suggesting sellers remain in control. A close above 0.1525–0.1530 could bring RSI into neutral territory and potentially trigger a short-term bounce.

Bollinger Bands

Price action remained tightly compressed within the Bollinger Bands for most of the session, indicating a low-volatility phase. A breakdown from the lower band occurred around 2025-10-22 07:30 ET, confirming the bearish bias. Current positioning near the lower band suggests continuation of the downtrend, with a potential rebound into the mid-band area (0.1515–0.1520) if short-term buyers enter the market.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the early morning session as price moved from 0.1630 to 0.1500, confirming the breakdown. The largest spike occurred around 0.1500–0.1470, with over $100,000 in turnover, suggesting strong bearish conviction. However, volume has since declined, indicating potential fatigue. If price rebounds above 0.1530, volume must increase to confirm a reversal; otherwise, bearish continuation may be more likely.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% retracement level of the 0.1642–0.1472 swing lies near 0.1525–0.1530, aligning with key resistance levels. A close above this level could trigger a retest of the 0.1540–0.1550 range. Conversely, the 38.2% retracement (0.1507) currently acts as a pivot point; a breakdown below this level could accelerate the move toward 0.1470.

Backtest Hypothesis

For a potential backtest strategy, a breakout-based approach could be tested: long entries on a close above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 0.1525–0.1530, with a stop-loss below 0.1500 and a take-profit target at 0.1550. A short entry would be initiated on a close below the 38.2% level (0.1507), with a stop above 0.1525 and a target of 0.1470. Given the current bearish momentum, a short-biased approach may be more appropriate in the near term.