Viction/Tether Market Overview

• VICUSDT traded lower over 24 hours, closing below key support levels with bearish momentum intact.
• Volume increased during sharp declines, suggesting strong bear pressure.
• MACD and RSI signal oversold conditions, but price remains in a descending channel.
• Bollinger Bands show moderate volatility, with price hovering near lower band.
• Fibonacci levels suggest potential for further downside near 0.2156, with resistance at 0.2233.

24-Hour Summary

Viction/Tether (VICUSDT) opened at 0.2262 on 2025-10-03 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.2295, a low of 0.2156, and closed at 0.2157 on 2025-10-04 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume was 1,467,127.85 VICT, and notional turnover was approximately $326,808. The pair has shown strong bearish momentum, with a sharp breakdown and increasing volume on the decline.

Structure & Formations

Over the past 24 hours, VICUSDT has formed a bearish trend channel with key support identified at 0.2156–0.2166 and resistance at 0.2233–0.2246. A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged during the early morning hours (ET), confirming the continuation of the downtrend. A doji candle appeared near 0.2189, suggesting momentary indecision, but bears regained control.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA are trending downward, with price consistently below both. On the daily chart, the 50DMA, 100DMA, and 200DMA are in a bearish alignment, reinforcing the downward bias. The price has been trading below the 50DMA since mid-morning on 10-04, indicating a potential continuation of bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has remained in negative territory, with the histogram expanding as bearish momentum intensifies. RSI has fallen to 27, indicating oversold conditions, but has not triggered a reversal signal. A bearish divergence between price and RSI is not evident, suggesting the downtrend may continue unless a strong rally emerges.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have expanded during the price decline, indicating increased volatility. Price has spent much of the 24-hour period near the lower band, reinforcing the bearish bias. The narrowest contraction occurred around 0.2234, but it did not lead to a reversal. A sustained close above the upper band would be a strong bullish signal, currently unlikely.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during key bearish moves, particularly from 0.2268 down to 0.2156, with the largest single-candle volume spike at 146,766.12 VICT. Notional turnover also increased during these declines, indicating strong bear participation. A divergence between price and volume is not observed, suggesting that bears are in control and the current decline is supported by sufficient liquidity.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing (0.2295 to 0.2156), key retracement levels are at 38.2% (0.2226), 50% (0.22255), and 61.8% (0.2223). These levels are closely aligned and may act as potential short-term resistance. On the daily swing (not available due to insufficient data), bearish Fibonacci levels suggest further downside could reach 0.2134 if support at 0.2156 fails.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve a short bias triggered by a close below the 50SMA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop above the 20SMA. The strategy would target 61.8% of the recent bearish swing and close the position if price reclaims the 50SMA. Given current conditions, with price below both moving averages and RSI indicating oversold conditions without reversal, this strategy would be active, suggesting a high probability of a successful short over the next 24 hours.