Viction/Tether Market Overview – 2025-10-06

• Viction/Tether (VICUSDT) traded in a tight range for much of the day before breaking out with higher highs and closing near the session high.
• Volume spiked in the afternoon and late evening, confirming a breakout from key intraday support levels.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions in the late hours, while MACD remained in bullish territory, suggesting potential momentum.
• Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion in the morning, with price hovering near the mid-band before diverging upward.
• A strong bullish reversal pattern formed in the late afternoon, followed by a sharp volume surge, indicating growing buying interest.

Viction/Tether (VICUSDT) opened at $0.2191 on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $0.2214 and a low of $0.2151 before closing at $0.2210 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET. The pair saw total volume of 868,475.87 and a notional turnover of $194,072.80 over the 24-hour period, with the most significant volume spikes occurring in the late evening and early morning hours.

The price structure showed a clear consolidation phase in the early hours, followed by a sharp bearish move in the afternoon, breaking key intraday support levels and triggering a brief bounce. A bullish reversal pattern formed at the 0.2175–0.2180 level, confirmed by rising volume, and price continued to rise, breaking the previous intraday highs. A 20-period and 50-period EMA crossover confirmed the short-term bullish bias, with the 50 EMA acting as a dynamic support during the retracements.

Bollinger Bands reflected a period of contraction in the morning, which was followed by an expansion as the price broke higher. Price remained above the mid-band throughout the afternoon and evening, suggesting a continuation of bullish momentum. RSI reached overbought territory (above 70) in the late hours, indicating potential exhaustion, while MACD remained positive and trending upward, reinforcing the bullish signal.

Volume and turnover analysis revealed strong buying interest in the late hours, with turnover increasing significantly between 05:00 and 07:00 ET. A divergence between price and turnover occurred briefly in the mid-afternoon, but it was quickly resolved by the rising volume that followed the bullish breakout. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.2175 acted as a strong support, and the price rebounded off it with high conviction.

Fibonacci levels for the day showed that the 0.2175 level was a critical psychological point that triggered a sharp reversal. The 38.2% retracement at $0.2191 also played a role in the morning consolidation before the bearish move. These levels could serve as key areas to watch for further directional bias in the coming 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could be built around the bullish reversal patterns observed near key Fibonacci levels, particularly the 61.8% retracement at $0.2175. A long entry at the open of the candle following the pattern, with a stop-loss below the pattern’s low, and a take-profit target at the 38.2% Fibonacci level ($0.2191), could have yielded a profitable trade. This strategy would benefit from high volume confirmation at entry to filter out false signals and improve the signal-to-noise ratio.