Viction/Tether Market Overview – 2025-09-22

• VIC/USDT declined sharply from $0.233 to $0.2056 over 24 hours.
• Strong bearish momentum confirmed by RSI and MACD divergence.
• Volatility surged with high turnover during the sharp selloff.
• Key support appears at $0.206–$0.208 with bearish continuation patterns.
• Market remains pressured; oversold RSI does not guarantee reversal.

The Viction/Tether (VICUSDT) pair opened at $0.232 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET, peaked at $0.233, and dropped to a 24-hour low of $0.2056 before closing at $0.2058 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-22. Total volume was 1.47 million contracts, and notional turnover hit $301,112, indicating heightened participation during the downward move.

Structure & Formations

Price action shows a bearish breakdown from initial resistance at $0.2312, followed by a rapid decline toward $0.206–$0.208, where a series of small bodies and a potential bullish engulfing pattern may signal short-term support. A bearish flag formation is visible between $0.210 and $0.209, and a long lower shadow on the candle closing at $0.2058 suggests some buying interest. Key levels to watch include $0.208 (Fib 61.8%), $0.210 (38.2%), and $0.233 (resistance).

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below the 20- and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the short-term bearish bias. The 50-period MA is currently at $0.214, while the 20-period MA is at $0.219. The daily chart shows the 50-period MA at $0.228, the 100-period at $0.235, and the 200-period at $0.239, indicating a broader bearish trend with price well below key indicators.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD has been in negative territory, with a bearish crossover confirming the downward thrust. RSI dropped to 28, entering oversold territory, yet price continues to fall, suggesting a lack of immediate reversal signals. The MACD histogram remains negative, and RSI divergence may hint at a possible pause or pullback, but caution is advised due to the strength of the selloff.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the selloff, with Bollinger Bands widening from $0.231–$0.232 to $0.206–$0.212. Price has remained below the lower band for several hours, indicating strong bearish control. A retest of the lower band at $0.206 could be a key moment to watch for a potential bounce or deeper bearish continuation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sharp drop, particularly between $0.2298 and $0.2189, where large-volume bearish candles confirmed the breakdown. Notional turnover surged during this period, aligning with price movement. A divergence in volume during recent minor rallies suggests sellers remain in control.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels from the high of $0.233 to the low of $0.2056 show $0.208 as the 61.8% retracement level, where price has paused multiple times. The 38.2% level is at $0.210, and a close above this could trigger a pullback, but a break below $0.208 would target $0.203–$0.205.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current bearish setup, a backtest strategy could focus on a bearish breakout approach using the 20-period MA as a trigger and stop-loss at the 50-period MA. Entries could be made after a close below the 20-period MA with confirmation from a bearish MACD crossover and RSI divergence. A trailing stop at recent swing lows, such as $0.206–$0.208, could manage risk while capturing continuation.