ViaSat's Turnaround Takes Off: Cash Flow, Debt Cuts, and Satellite Power Fuel a Stock on Fire

Let me tell ya, folks—this is a story of redemption. ViaSat (VSAT) just delivered a Q4 earnings report that’s screaming “buy now” if you’re paying attention. The company’s cash flow is surging, debt is shrinking, and its next-gen satellites are finally hitting their stride. This isn’t just a recovery—it’s a full-blown turnaround, and the stock is primed to blast off.

The Debt Dragon Is Being Slain
ViaSat’s biggest hurdle has always been its mountain of debt. But here’s the good news: they’re making serious progress. The company slashed $359 million in senior notes in FY2025 and redeemed the remaining $442.6 million post-quarter. While net debt to LTM Adjusted EBITDA stayed flat year-over-year, the key takeaway is this: they’re actively whittling down leverage.

With $2.8 billion in liquidity, ViaSat isn’t drowning in red ink anymore. The market’s been too focused on past struggles, but the numbers now show a company in control. This isn’t a debt-laden wreck—it’s a leaner, meaner machine ready to soar.

Free Cash Flow Ignites the Afterburners
Cash flow is the lifeblood of any turnaround, and ViaSat’s is gushing. Free cash flow improved by $729 million year-over-year, thanks to smart capital allocation. Even better? They slashed CapEx guidance by $200 million, proving they can grow without breaking the bank.

This isn’t just about survival—it’s about future dominance. With $1.55 billion in Adjusted EBITDA and a record $4.5 billion in revenue, ViaSat is finally turning its massive investments into tangible results. Defense contracts are booming (up 58%!), and aviation adoption is exploding. The backlog? A staggering $4.5 billion. That’s not a typo—that’s a cash machine waiting to be fired up.

The Satellite Sweet Spot: ViaSat-3’s Triple Threat
Now, let’s talk about the real game-changer: the ViaSat-3 satellites. These aren’t just pretty space rocks—they’re profit engines.

First, ViaSat-3 F1 is already live, powering 2,000 planes and logging tens of thousands of flights. Hawaii routes? Customers are raving about the speed and reliability.

Second, F2 is shipping this summer, with F3 set for commercial ops in early 2026. Together, they’ll form a global broadband network that can’t be ignored.

The NexusWave maritime service is a genius move—blending VS-3’s Ka-band with LEO satellites and coastal LTE. This hybrid network cuts costs while boosting coverage. Maritime and aviation customers? They’re lining up. STARLUX Airlines just signed a full fleet contract, and American Airlines’ Wi-Fi is winning raves.

Why the Stock Is a Steal
The market’s missing the forest for the trees. ViaSat trades at just 5x forward EBITDA, even as peers like Boeing (BA) and Lockheed (LMT) fetch 10x+ multiples. That’s a screaming undervaluation.

The catalysts are clear: F2/F3 launches in 2026 will supercharge revenue. Maritime and aviation services are scaling, and the $4.7 billion in FY2025 awards isn’t coming to fruition—it’s coming to your portfolio’s bottom line.

Risks? Sure—But They’re Manageable
No investment is risk-free. The EMEA ground network impairment? A one-time hit. Launch delays? ULA’s track record is solid, and F3’s antenna redesign avoids F2’s reflector issues. The Ligado legal battle? They’re fighting it, and it’s excluded from forecasts.

This Is a Buy—Now
The math is undeniable. ViaSat’s free cash flow is accelerating, debt is shrinking, and the ViaSat-3 network is about to dominate aviation, maritime, and defense markets. At current prices, this stock is a screaming value play.

Don’t let the noise about past debt distract you. ViaSat is a turnaround success story in the making. Buy now—before the satellites light up the sky and the competition realizes they’ve been outmaneuvered.

Action Plan:
- Buy VSAT now at $50/share (as of May 20, 2025).
- Target: $80/share by mid-2026 as F2/F3 ramp up.
- Risks: Launch delays or regulatory hiccups—watch for F2’s summer progress.

This isn’t a gamble—it’s a no-brainer. Strap in, folks—ViaSat’s about to take flight.