Viasat Skyrockets 32.8%—What’s Fueling This Volcanic Eruption?

Summary
• Viasat (VSAT) surges 32.8% intraday, hitting $28.28 amid Q1 earnings outperformance and strategic asset reviews.
• 52-week high of $28.585 breached, with turnover surging 12.88% as short-term bullish momentum intensifies.
• JPMorgan upgrades price target to $23, citing revenue growth and potential monetization of defense assets.
• Analysts flag overbought conditions (RSI: 78.6) but highlight 150% YTD returns and 37% weekly gains. This explosive move reflects a confluence of earnings optimism, strategic clarity, and speculative fervor, with the stock trading at a 32% premium to its 200-day moving average.

Q1 Earnings Surge and Strategic Asset Reviews Ignite Rally
Viasat’s 32.8% intraday surge is driven by a combination of Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings that exceeded revenue estimates ($1.17B vs. $1.13B) and renewed focus on monetizing its Defense and Aerospace Technologies assets. JPMorgan’s upgraded price target from $10 to $23 underscores confidence in the company’s strategic direction, while the 150% YTD return reflects investor optimism about long-term value creation. The stock’s breakout above its 52-week high of $28.585 and the 37% weekly gain signal a shift in market sentiment, with analysts noting that even a net loss is overshadowed by revenue growth and activist investor interest.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Overbought Momentum and Liquidity
• 200-day average: $10.46 (far below current price); RSI: 78.6 (overbought); MACD: 1.306 (bullish divergence); Bollinger Bands: Price at $28.28 vs. upper band $19.41 (far above).
• Key levels: 52-week high at $28.585 (critical resistance), 200D MA at $10.46 (strong support). Short-term outlook favors continuation above $26.71 (prior 52-week high) but warns of overbought conditions.
• Top Options:
• VSAT20250815C30 (Call, $30 strike, 2025-08-15):
– IV: 99.90% (high volatility)
– Leverage: 25.49% (high)
– Delta: 0.3749 (moderate sensitivity)
– Theta: -0.1276 (rapid time decay)
– Gamma: 0.0818 (responsive to price swings)
– Turnover: $140,512 (liquid)
– Payoff at 5% upside ($29.69): $1.69/share. This contract offers aggressive leverage for a continued rally, with high liquidity and gamma amplifying gains if the stock breaks above $30.
• VSAT20250919C25 (Call, $25 strike, 2025-09-19):
– IV: 87.63% (moderate)
– Leverage: 5.54% (low)
– Delta: 0.7067 (high sensitivity)
– Theta: -0.0468 (moderate decay)
– Gamma: 0.0399 (less responsive)
– Turnover: $101,916 (liquid)
– Payoff at 5% upside ($29.69): $4.69/share. This option balances delta and liquidity for a more conservative play, ideal for holding through potential volatility.
Aggressive bulls should prioritize VSAT20250815C30 into a break above $30, while VSAT20250919C25 offers a safer, longer-term hedge.

Backtest Viasat Stock Performance
The backtest of VSAT's performance after a 33% intraday surge shows mixed results. While the stock experienced a maximum return of 2.52% on day 57, the overall short-term performance was lackluster, with a slight decline in the 3-day and 10-day returns (-0.26% and -0.08%, respectively).

Act Now: Ride the Wave or Secure Profits Before Volatility Peaks
Viasat’s 32.8% surge is a high-stakes game of momentum and overbought conditions. With RSI at 78.6 and MACD divergence, a pullback to $26.71 (prior 52-week high) is likely, but the 150% YTD return and JPMorgan’s $23 target suggest resilience. Investors should lock in profits near $28.585 or use the VSAT20250815C30 call to capitalize on a potential breakout. Meanwhile, the sector leader Lockheed Martin (LMT) is up 1.7%, signaling broader aerospace optimism. Watch for a $30 close to confirm the rally’s sustainability—or a breakdown below $26.71 to trigger a correction.