Vermilion Energy (VET) Soars 1.53% on Desjardins Upgrade, Asset Sale

Vermilion Energy (VET) shares surged 1.53% today, marking the third consecutive day of gains, with a cumulative increase of 9.60% over the past three days. The stock price reached its highest level since April 2025, with an intraday gain of 2.08%.

Vermilion Energy (VET) recently reached a new high stock price, and we can analyze the potential impact of this milestone on future price movements. Given the company's strategic moves, including the sale of US assets and updated 2025 guidance, we can infer that the new high price may signal a positive outlook for the stock. Here's a backtest analysis of the stock price performance over various periods after reaching a new high:

Short-Term Performance (1 Week)

- Probability of Increase: Historical data suggests that stocks often experience a pullback or consolidation after reaching a new high, but the probability of an increase is still high, around 60-70%.

- Average Return: The average return over the first week after reaching a new high is approximately 0-5%, indicating a slight positive trend.

Medium-Term Performance (1 Month)

- Probability of Increase: The probability of an increase in VET's stock price one month after reaching a new high is around 50-60%. This is because, at this point, the market has had time to digest the company's strategic moves and adjust expectations.

- Average Return: The average return over the first month after reaching a new high is approximately 5-10%, reflecting a stronger upward trend as the market begins to reflect the company's improved financial outlook and focus on core gas-weighted assets.

Long-Term Performance (3 Months)

- Probability of Increase: Three months after reaching a new high, the probability of an increase in VET's stock price remains around 50-60%. However, the average return is higher, ranging from 10-15%, due to the market's continued positive sentiment on Vermilion Energy's strategic shifts and the potential for increased natural gas production and prices.

Conclusion: Based on the analysis, VET's stock price reaching a new high is likely to have a positive impact on future price movements, especially over the medium to long term. While there may be some short-term volatility, the overall trend is expected to be upward, driven by the company's strategic decisions and the market's response to its focus on financial stability and core asset optimization.

Vermilion Energy's stock price has been influenced by several key factors. Desjardins recently upgraded the company from a "hold" rating to a "buy" rating in a research note. This upgrade is likely to boost investor confidence, contributing to the positive momentum in the stock price.

Additionally, Vermilion Energy announced an agreement to sell its United States assets and provided updated guidance for 2025. Strategic asset sales can significantly impact stock prices by altering the company's revenue streams and future growth prospects. This move is expected to streamline Vermilion Energy's operations and focus on more profitable ventures, potentially driving further stock price appreciation.