Verizon's Earnings Call: Will the Wireless Giant Keep Climbing?

Investors, buckle up! Verizon (VZ) is about to take the stage on April 22 with its Q1 2025 earnings report, and there’s a lot on the line. This isn’t just another earnings call—Verizon’s performance will tell us whether it can keep its grip on the U.S. wireless market while navigating inflation, shifting consumer habits, and stiff competition from T-Mobile and AT&T. Let’s break it down.

The Numbers That Matter

Analysts are expecting Verizon to report earnings of $1.15 per share, flat compared to last year, with revenue inching up 1% to $33.32 billion. But don’t get bogged down in the headline figures. The real story is in the details:

1. Wireless Service Revenue Growth: Verizon has now grown this key metric for 18 straight quarters, a streak that defines its dominance. Q1’s projected 3.6% year-over-year increase in wireless service revenue (to $19.68 billion) could extend that run. If this number pops, it’ll show that Verizon’s focus on high-margin services—like 5G upgrades and premium plans—is paying off.

2. ARPU (Average Revenue Per User): The 6% jump in postpaid ARPU to $143.87 is a massive win. This means customers are spending more per month on wireless plans, likely due to 5G adoption and add-ons like streaming bundles. If this trend holds, it could offset softer hardware sales (wireless equipment revenue dipped 0.5%).

3. Subscriber Additions: Here’s where the caution flags fly. Postpaid phone additions are expected to drop to 80,150, down from 90,000 last year. Investors will scrutinize this metric closely—stagnant or falling subscriber growth could signal waning customer loyalty. Meanwhile, Fios Internet net adds fell 13%, a reminder that traditional broadband is still losing ground to alternatives like satellite.

The Stock’s Story: A Defensive Gem in a Volatile Market

Verizon’s shares have held up admirably, gaining 0.6% over the past month while the S&P 500 sank 4.2%. That resilience isn’t a fluke—it’s rooted in Verizon’s dividend yield of 4.6%, which acts as a moat in choppy waters. The stock’s $46.91 average price target (implying a 5.9% upside) reflects Wall Street’s cautious optimism. But don’t forget: Verizon’s 52-week performance of +11.5% still lags the Communication Services sector.

The Bulls’ Case: This Is a Cash Machine

Verizon’s dividend isn’t the only cash cow. Its wireless service cash flow is rock-solid, and the company continues to monetize its 5G infrastructure. CEO Hans Vestberg has also been ruthless in cutting costs, which should help offset inflationary pressures. Long-term, analysts see EPS growing 2.4% in 2025 and 3.4% in 2026—a modest but reliable trajectory.

The Bears’ Concerns: Can It Keep Up?

The red flags are in the details:
- Fios Video’s 8.7% decline shows the writing’s on the wall for traditional TV services.
- Business revenues are flat, which could mean corporations are holding back on spending.
- If postpaid phone additions keep falling, it’ll raise questions about Verizon’s ability to compete with T-Mobile’s aggressive promotions.

What to Watch For on Earnings Night

• Wireless service revenue growth: Anything above 4% would be a win.
• Postpaid ARPU: Sustain the momentum—it’s the golden goose.
• Fios net adds: If the slide accelerates, it could spook investors.

Final Verdict: Buy the Dip, but Beware the Weak Spots

Verizon is a “buy the dip” stock in my book. Its dividend is a lifeline for income investors, and its wireless dominance isn’t going anywhere soon. The $46.91 price target isn’t aggressive, but it’s grounded in reality. However, if Verizon’s postpaid additions crater or its wireless service growth slows, the stock could face a reckoning.

For now, I’m staying bullish—but keep an eye on those subscriber numbers. This is a stock that’s less about moonshots and more about steady returns. In a market full of volatility, that’s not a bad thing.

Action Alert: If earnings beat expectations, consider adding to positions. If they miss, wait for the dust to settle before jumping in. This is a company that’s here to stay, but it’s not immune to execution missteps.

Data as of April 2025. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Consult your financial advisor before making investment decisions.